HomeNewsEuro 2024 outright winner predictions & picks

Euro 2024 outright winner predictions & picks

Betting on major tournaments is not for the faint-hearted, that’s for sure. It can be agonizing to bet on a team, see them thrive during the group stage, get to the final, and then blow it right at the last minute, and I’d know.

That said, it can still be lots of fun to try, and I'm far from alone in thinking that as thousands of bettors try their luck in the outright market each and every time a big tournament comes around.

At the end of the day, picking the winner of a major tournament is hard; you need lots of luck on your side, while outright betting certainly requires a lot of big-picture thinking and patience.

This is why it’s best to search for a little bit of value rather than just go for the likeliest winner, despite how tempting it can be to bet on favorites. I’m certainly not shouting up a big price for my main outright pick this time around, but I am going to avoid siding with either of the top two in the outright market.

For those who read my first Euro 2024 prediction article, my main outright play will be Germany at +550, which for my money, is ever so slightly on the generous side.

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Why do the Germans stand out?

Of course, there are several big soccer nations at this tournament, any of which could quite easily play their way to victory, so I am by no means saying that Germany will absolutely win, but I think they should be getting maximum respect, which the early betting doesn’t quite reflect as far as I’m concerned.

Why do I think they warrant maximum respect? Well, there are a couple of reasons, starting with the fact that they have a home advantage.

I know, I know, siding with the hosts, how boring. After all, only three previous tournament hosts have gone on to clinch victory, and we haven’t seen the host nation triumph since France did the business back in 1984.

However, the Germans have a rather strong affinity with this competition, reaching the final more times than any other nation, while they’re the joint-most winners, so their becoming the first home Euro winners of the 21st century definitely has a ring to it.

A very nice squad

The Die Mannschaft squad always looks strong, or at least, the Germans typically show up at major tournaments with no shortage of quality to call upon.

This time around, the squad, on paper at least, looks rather appealing. First and foremost, manager Julian Nagelsmann isn’t short of experienced players, with Ilkay Gundogan, Toni Kroos, Antonio Rudiger, Joshua Kimmich, and Thomas Muller having won just about everything there is to win between them.

Experience is often best complimented by the exuberance of youth, and at his disposal, Nagelsmann has plenty. Having played a starring role for double-winner Bayer Leverkusen this season, Florian Wirtz, who has just scored 18 goals and registered 19 assists domestically, is arguably the hottest young player on the planet.

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Not only do the Germans have Wirtz, but they also have Bayern Munich pair Jamal Musiala and Aleksandar Pavlovic, both of whom have already shown their ability to do damage at the highest level.

It also must be said that many of the German players have also enjoyed fine domestic campaigns in knockout competitions, which is not something to overlook.

Jonathan Tah and Florian Wirtz not only won the league with Bayer Leverkusen last season, but they reached the UEFA Europa League final and won the DFB Pokal (German Cup).

Antonio Rudiger, Nico Schlotterbeck, Toni Kroos, and Niclas Füllkrug all reached the final of the UEFA Champions League. That positive experience could hold the Germans in good stead at this tournament.

Not one, but two German bets

As well as betting on Germany to win the ultimate prize, I’m also going to play the Germans to reach the final at +275, which again, to my eyes, is just a little on the large side.

As mentioned above, no nation in the history of this competition has featured in more finals, with the 2024 hosts playing in three finals as West Germany and three as a reunified Germany.

In other words, 37.5% of all European Championships finals ever played have featured the Germans. If we translate that 37.5% into betting odds, we arrive at +167, making odds of +275 look quite generous.

Odds of +275 carry an implied probability of 26.7%, so taking such odds seems far from a poor move, at least as far as I’m concerned.

In Summary, ahead of this summer’s tournament, I’m putting up the following two pre-tournament bets: