HomeNewsEuro 2024 outsider prediction & picks

Euro 2024 outsider prediction & picks

Euro 2024 longshot predictions & picks

Everyone loves a good underdog bet, especially ahead of big tournaments like the World Cup or the European Championships.

Of course, betting on an underdog at something like Euro 2024 probably isn’t going to yield a return, underdogs rarely do when it comes to big soccer competitions, as the cream typically rises, but that’s all part of the fun.

I’ll be throwing two underdog darts at Euro 2024, one slightly more hopeful than the other.

Firstly, I fancy a little bit of the Netherlands at +1600, largely because outside of the first five in the betting, who are all some way clear of the rest, they’re the most likely winners in my opinion.

Secondly, at +10000, I’ll have a few bucks each-way on Ukraine. Most fans have an opinion on a dark horse ahead of something like the Euros, and the Ukrainians are my dark horses here.

For a more detailed explanation of these two Euro 2024 underdog tips, continue reading below.

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Outright betting market

Let’s take a look at the outright betting markets, minus the first five favorites. After all, we’re talking about underdogs in this article.

Team	Odds
Italy	+1400
Belgium	+1600
Netherlands	+1600
Croatia	+4000
Denmark	+4000
Turkey	+5000
Switzerland	+6600
Serbia	+8000
Austria	+8000
Hungary	+8000
Scotland	+10000
Ukraine	+10000
Czech Republic	+15000
Poland	+15000
Romania	+20000
Slovenia	+25000
Slovakia	+50000
Albania	+50000
Georgia	+75000

Have underdogs performed well in the past?

As mentioned when writing about how favorites usually perform at the Euros, there’s only really been one genuine underdog that has picked up this prestigious prize in recent times.

Back in 2004, Greece triumphed at massive odds of +15000, which truly was an upset of rather huge proportions, but there have since been a couple of minor upsets which should fill those bettors willing to go against the first few in the market with some confidence ahead of this tournament.

When Portugal got the job done back in 2016, they were far from huge underdogs, but they weren’t favorites either, starting the tournament at a relatively chunky +1600 in the betting.

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At Euro 2020 (played 2021), the Italians also weren’t big underdogs, not at all, but again, they weren’t favorites either, winning the tournament at odds of +900.

Of course, as also mentioned in previous articles, success at big tournaments doesn’t simply mean getting your hands on the trophy.

For the big three or four nations, being crowned as champions is the only thing that will really qualify as genuine success, but for many of the teams involved, going deep into the competition can definitely be considered a form of success.

Among the smaller nations, we've seen a few success stories in recent times, with teams virtually written off in the pre-tournament betting reaching the semi-finals, such as Russia and Turkey did back at Euro 2008.

Dutch delight in Germany?

Given the players that they’ve had over the years, the Netherlands have been massive underachievers at big tournaments, there’s no getting away from that.

They famously failed in back-to-back World Cup finals during the 70’s, despite having one of the best players that's ever lived in one of them (Johan Cruyff), before claiming their first and only title at Euro 1988, thanks to what is arguably the greatest ever goal scored in a major final, but they could have (and probably should’ve) had more.

Could the current crop of Orange kits wearers lead the Dutch to glory in Germany this time around? Probably not, but at +1600, they may not be the worst bet in the world.

At the World Cup in late 2022, they reached the quarters, taking the eventual winners all the way to penalties.

What I really like about the Dutch here is the strength (on paper) of their back-line, which is not something that they’ve really been known for over the years.

We all know what a superb defender Virgil van Dijk is, and he’s not a bad leader either, and if there’s one thing a successful tournament team has, then it’s typically a proper leader.

Lining up with van Dijk will be Micky van de Ven, who despite playing for a leaky Spurs team, was clocked as the fastest Premier League defender last season, proving himself to be up there with the best recovery men around.

Full back Jeremie Frimpong enjoyed an amazing campaign with double winners Bayer Leverkusen, while Stefan de Vrij won Serie A with Inter Milan.

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Throw in the fact that they’ve got plenty of quality through midfield and attack, with Xavi Simons, Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen and Teun Koopmeiners coming to mind, and you don’t have to try too hard to think that they’ve got the tools to do a very decent job.

They couldn’t, could they?

I’m quite sure virtually every soccer fan on the planet gave the Greeks no chance ahead of Euro 2004 and we all know how that turned out, so at +10000, why can’t the Ukrainians play their way to glory at Euro 2024?

The simple answer is they just can’t, and they almost certainly won’t, and I’m not going to pretend I’ve got a bucket load of reasons why Ukraine can cause a huge upset, absolutely not.

What I am going to say is that it’s fun to have a little bet on a big underdog, while in the Ukrainian team are some very impressive players, players that have enjoyed strong seasons in some of Europe’s best leagues, so they could perhaps perform a little better in Germany than odds of +10000 suggest.

After all, in Artem Dovbyk they have a player who is coming off the back of a red-hot season for third-place Girona in the Spanish top flight, where he scored no less than 24 goals, registering eight assists too. In that same Girona team, midfielder Viktor Tsygankov also had a stellar season, scoring and assisting a combined total of 15. He too adds lots of quality to a tidy-looking Ukraine side.

Alongside the Girona duo, Ukraine will be captained by Arsenal’s Oleksandr Zinchenko, who as fans of the Premier League will know, is a very good player.

In Genoa’s Ruslan Malinovsky they also have a deadly left-footed set piece specialist, so they’ll be a threat from advanced free-kicks and corners, especially with Roman Yaremchuk likely partnering Dovbyk up top.

For little other reason than the fact that it’s just fun to have a few bucks on a +10000 shot, I’ve got Ukraine down as my big outside shout ahead of Euro 2024.