Spain vs Italy Euro 2024 prediction, picks, preview

Having burst onto the scene during the first round of group matches, making a statement and securing three crucial points, Spain will be looking for another significant victory. However, defeating Italy, who also won their first game, will be a tough challenge.

Spain vs Italy prediction

For the Spain vs Italy match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-0 win for Italy based on our analysis.

Both teams impressed in their opening matches, but they will face tougher tests here. Historically, these teams have been evenly matched.

Spain vs Italy predictions and betting odds:

Italy (0) Asian Handicap @ +150 with bet365
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Spain vs Italy betting odds

Bet	Odds
Spain to win	+120
Italy to win	+275
Draw	+240

Spain vs Italy head-to-head statistics

This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams since June 2021, when they drew 1-1 (in regulation) at the delayed Euro 2020, with Spain winning in a penalty shootout.

Since that shootout victory, Spain has narrowly defeated Italy twice, winning 2-1 in both 2021 and 2023.

This will be the 26th meeting of this historic fixture. Since their first clash in 1920, Spain has won eight times, while Italy has won seven.

Spain vs Italy preview

This match will be played on June 20, 2024, at Veltins Arena (Gelsenkirchen). Kickoff is at 3:00 PM ET.

The best word to describe Spain’s performance in their opening Group B fixture is "clinical." La Roja capitalized on their chances against Croatia, thanks to sharp finishing from Alvaro Morata, Fabian Ruiz, and Dani Carvajal.

While Spain’s end-product was impressive, leading to a 3-0 scoreline, it would be misleading to say they dominated Croatia. Spain was more clinical than their opponents, which is crucial for results, but they did not control all aspects of the game. An xG-against of 2.27 indicates that they were somewhat fortunate not to concede multiple goals.

Despite what a 2-1 scoreline suggests, Italy was much more comfortable in their first-round game. They conceded an early goal against Albania but didn't need to shift into high gear to secure the win.

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Italy quickly turned things around, scoring twice before halftime and creating numerous other chances, including a near-perfect chip from Davide Frattesi that hit the post.

Overall, Italy’s performance was positive, giving them confidence ahead of their match against Spain.

Spain vs Italy betting picks

Our main bet for Spain vs Italy is to side with the Italians, with the insurance that a '0 Asian Handicap' bet provides.

Italy (0) Asian Handicap

Spain is favored in early betting, but this might be an overreaction to their win against Croatia. As mentioned earlier, Spain’s victory was not as decisive as the scoreline suggests, and they conceded several chances, which could be problematic against an Italian side that is strong defensively and dangerous on the counter.

Italy showed plenty of creativity and threat from set-pieces in their game against Albania. They will likely be comfortable sitting back and countering against a Spanish team that appears open defensively.

Italy has conceded just one goal in its last six matches and has lost only once in their last 12 games, even against strong opponents.

While Spain boasts impressive attacking talent, players like Williams and Lamal thrive with space to run into, which they might not find against a disciplined Italian defense.

We are not predicting a dominant performance from Italy or a guaranteed victory, but the evidence suggests the match will be closer than the odds indicate. Betting on Italy to win, with a refund if the game ends in a draw, is the best bet in our opinion.