It's crunch time for both Croatia and Italy in Group B. Following their draw against Albania, the Croatians almost certainly need a win to progress, while the Italians can't afford to lose if they want the best chance of advancing.
We're set up for an intriguing contest in Leipzig. Read on for our Croatia vs. Italy predictions.
Croatia vs. Italy prediction
For the Croatia vs. Italy match prediction, we believe the final score will be 2-1 in favor of Croatia based on our analysis.
The Italians have a long history of digging deep and grinding out results when needed, but if they sit back and look to secure a point here, they may regret it against a Croatian side that can cause problems, especially with forward Ante Budimir to aim at.
See below for our Croatia vs. Italy predictions, with analysis provided later in the article:
Croatia to Win @ +220 with bet365
Ante Budimir to Score @ +275 with bet365
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Croatia vs. Italy betting odds
Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
Croatia to win | +220 |
Italy to win | +220 |
Draw | +135 |
Croatia vs. Italy head-to-head statistics
It's been a while since these two nations faced each other, with the last renewal of this fixture coming back in 2015, when the pair drew 1-1 in Zagreb.
Interestingly, each of the last three renewals of this fixture has ended 1-1. What's more, the Italians have never beaten the Croatians, who’ve won three of the previous eight renewals.
Croatia vs. Italy preview
This match will be played on 06/24/2024 at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig. Kickoff will be at 8:00 PM GMT.
Given what we've seen from Croatia at recent major tournaments, it's probably fair to say that they've underperformed in Germany so far.
They could be forgiven for coming unstuck against an excellent and clinical Spain side, especially as they produced plenty of promising offensive moves in that game, but their failure to beat Albania last time out is hard to forgive.
It's also fair to say that manager Zlatko Dalić got it wrong. Playing Dinamo Zagreb’s Bruno Petković up top instead of Ante Budimir, who was on fire at a much better level of club football last season, was a very strange choice.
Since Budimir came on midway through the second half and instantly threatened, playing a big hand in both goals, I suspect the lineup will be a little different against the Italians, but it might be too late.
At the end of the day, we know the quality that this Croatia team possesses. They've got some fantastically experienced players and some very good ones at that too. They beat Portugal on the eve of the tournament, so if they get it right here and play to their strengths, they could easily get the desired result.
For Italy, things also went awry on matchday two. They were, of course, less desperate for three points following their opening-round win against Albania, but still, they were disappointing.
I was very much of the opinion that the Italians could push the Spanish, but when it came down to it, they were well beaten in all areas.
If we judge them purely on their efforts in Germany so far, then it’s likely fair to say that only a minor miracle would see the Italians retain their European Championships title.
Croatia vs. Italy betting picks
Looking at the early prices, I'm going to throw two darts at this fixture. Let's see if any of them stick.
Croatia to Win
At the available odds (at the time of writing), the Croatians look like a decent bet. Yes, they've got just one point so far, and yes, they failed to beat the Albanians, but they're better suited by games of this nature.
Let's face it, over the last few years, this Croatian side has thrived in big games and this is very much a big game, so it's time for them to rise to the occasion once more.
I thought the Italians would offer much more against the Spanish and they didn't, and I don't think that was solid preparation for this crunch game.
What's more, I was much more impressed with the way the Croatians created solid chances against the Spanish. On another day, they could easily have scored two goals and possibly gotten a draw out of that game. After all, they came out on top in terms of xG.
In stark contrast, on another day, Italy could have lost 4-0 instead of 1-0. They were entirely non-competitive against Spain, so the Croats have nothing to fear here. If they can tweak their lineup to include the very dangerous Budimir up top, then I think they're a little overpriced to come out on top.
Ante Budimir to Score
If you happen to have been reading from the start (big if, I know), you'll know that this is not the first time I've banged this particular drum, but I think there's a tune left to be played here.
For my money, it was absolutely criminal that Budimir didn't start against Albania. Listen, I'm no international manager, far from it, but there's no way Petkovic, who offered nothing, should've gotten the nod over a man who, when fit, terrorized LaLiga defenses last season.
I'll be stunned if Budimir isn't in from the start here, and if he does begin the game, I'll be equally stunned if he doesn't cause the Italian backline some serious problems.
Having scored 17 LaLiga goals for Osasuna last season, averaging 0.63 goals per game, not to mention 0.53 xG per game, the big Croatian forward is worth betting on to find the net in Leipzig.
Recap - Croatia vs. Italy betting picks
Here goes, two bets ahead of this all-important Group B clash between Croatia and Italy:
Croatia to Win @ +220 with bet365
Ante Budimir to Score @ +275 with bet365
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