HomeNewsFrance vs Belgium Euro 2024 prediction, picks, preview

France vs Belgium Euro 2024 prediction, picks, preview

France vs Belgium prediction

For the France vs Belgium match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 3-1 win for France based on our analysis.

Neither team was particularly impressive during the group stages, but the Belgians made a much worse defensive impression, which doesn’t bode well against a French attack that can be very deadly.

Our France vs Belgium predictions are as follows:

France to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ +120 with bet365
Adrien Rabiot Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ +350 with bet365
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France vs Belgium betting odds

The early betting odds imply that the French have a 52.4% chance of winning this game, while the Belgians have a 31.3% chance of success.

Bet	Odds
France to win	-110
Belgium to win	+400
Draw	+220

Using our own calculations, we’ve arrived at a win probability of 57.9% for France and 28.6% for Belgium.

France vs Belgium head-to-head statistics

This will be the first time the teams have met since their showdown in the UEFA Nations League back in 2021, which saw France come out on top with a 3-2 win. Les Bleus have won each of their last two games against Belgium, who’ve won just one of their last six against France.

France vs Belgium preview

This match will be played on July 1, 2024, at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET.

Some expected the French to dominate the group stages, especially with the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann in their attack, but the tournament’s format doesn’t really lend itself to such an approach. We saw a more subdued Les Bleus as a result.

Teams appeared to do just enough during the group stages, with only one of the 24 entrants winning all three of their games. The French team has a lot more to offer.

A notable downside is that France has scored just two goals in Germany, none from open play by a Frenchman. Their winner against Austria was an own goal, and Mbappe scored from the penalty spot on match-day three.

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On the positive side, the French have conceded just one goal, so they likely fancy their chances of keeping things tight against a Belgian side that struggled in the group stages.

The Red Devils were hugely underwhelming during the group stages. They were sloppy and lacking in end product against Slovakia on match-day one, and they also struggled to take their chances against Romania on match-day two.

For the third and final time in Group E, the Belgians huffed and puffed but ultimately lacked the offensive power to break down Ukraine, drawing 0-0 to send themselves through in far from convincing fashion.

Like many teams left in the competition, Domenico Tedesco’s men will need to improve significantly if they’re to make a serious impact in Germany over the next couple of weeks.

France vs Belgium betting picks

We’ve landed on two betting plays ahead of this exciting Euro 2024 fixture, both favoring the French.

France to Score Over 1.5 Goals

We’ve yet to see the French explode into action at this tournament, but we know they have the tools to do real damage.

The Belgians looked open and rather ragged at the back in their three group games. Although they conceded just one goal, they’re now facing a much stronger French side. Unless they can tighten up, which seems unlikely given their reliance on players who do not play at the top level, they could be in trouble here.

Having created plenty of chances and posting 2.41 xG against Poland, Les Bleus look to have a slightly better chance than the early odds suggest of scoring multiple goals against what looks like a second-rate Belgian defense.

Adrien Rabiot Over 0.5 Shots on Target

French midfielder Adrien Rabiot looks like good value in the betting to register a shot on target.

In a team with Mbappe, Dembele, and Griezmann, Rabiot can often be overlooked, but he’s very much trusted by manager Deschamps, who knows the 29-year-old to be a reliable and useful midfielder.

While he is not a regular goal scorer, Rabiot is a player who will get forward and join attacks. In an open game against an attacking side like Belgium, he has the tools to take advantage.

Rabiot averaged 0.54 shots on target per game last season, which is over one shot on target every two games. That alone makes odds of +350, which imply one shot every three and a half games, seem quite favorable.

Moreover, in qualifying for this tournament, Rabiot took an average of 2.14 shots per 90 minutes (0.71 on target), while in the last Nations League campaign, he averaged 0.93 shots on target per game. He’s far from unlikely to take a shot for his nation.