Spain vs Germany Euro 2024 prediction, picks, preview

The quarterfinals of Euro 2024 kick off on Friday with a match that could easily be the final. Spain and Germany, arguably the two best teams in the tournament, face off in Stuttgart.

Spain vs. Germany prediction

For the Spain vs. Germany match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-1 draw based on our analysis.

Both teams have shown impressive form in this tournament, with neither giving much away. Expect a tightly contested match that could go down to the wire.

Our predictions for Spain vs. Germany are as follows:

• Pedri Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ +150 with bet365

• Robin Le Normand to be Booked @ +300 with bet365

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Spain vs. Germany betting odds

Early betting odds suggest that Spain has a 38.1% chance of winning, while Germany has a 36.4% chance of success.

Our calculations slightly differ, giving Spain a 38.5% win probability and Germany a 35.7% chance.

Spain vs. Germany head-to-head statistics

These two teams are no strangers to each other. This will be their fifth meeting in the last decade. Three of those five games ended in draws, with each team winning one match apiece.

Their most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw during the group stages of the 2022 World Cup.

Spain vs. Germany preview

This match will be played on July 5, 2024, at MHPArena in Stuttgart, with kickoff at 1:00 PM EST.

Spain cruised through the round of 16 with a commanding 4-1 win over Georgia. Despite an early setback with an own goal by Robin Le Normand, La Roja delivered a dominant performance.

Having played four games in Germany, Spain looks like a formidable team that will be tough for anyone to beat, even against the tournament hosts.

Germany, playing on home soil, has also looked strong. They won their group with relative ease, despite needing a late equalizer against Switzerland on matchday three. They overcame a tough test against Denmark in the round of 16, winning thanks to second-half goals from Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala, who continue to be key players for Die Mannschaft.

Spain vs. Germany betting picks

Ahead of this exciting clash, here are two player-focused bets to consider:

Pedri Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Pedri has been somewhat overlooked by the early market. While much focus is on Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, Pedri should not be forgotten in terms of shooting.

The Barcelona midfielder frequently gets forward and takes shots, especially from outside the box. He has averaged 2.51 shots per game at Euro 2024, with 1.51 on target. He has registered three shots on target in his last two matches, making this a worthwhile bet.

Robin Le Normand to be Booked

Robin Le Normand to be booked is another attractive bet. The Real Sociedad defender has a history of picking up yellow cards, with an average of 2.28 fouls per game at this tournament and 13 yellow cards for Sociedad last season.

In this high-pressure game, expect him to be under significant defensive pressure, increasing the likelihood of a booking.

Recap - Spain vs. Germany betting picks

To recap, the two recommended bets ahead of Spain vs. Germany are:

• Pedri Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ +150 with bet365

• Robin Le Normand to be Booked @ +300 with bet365

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