Netherlands vs Turkey Euro 2024 prediction, picks, preview

The last of the four quarter-final matches takes place on Saturday evening, when the Netherlands and Turkey will clash at Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany.

Both teams are on the seemingly less challenging side of the draw, so they will likely see this as a huge opportunity to advance closer to the final of a major tournament. Read on for our Netherlands vs Turkey predictions.

Netherlands vs Turkey prediction

For the Netherlands vs Turkey match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 3-1 win for the Netherlands based on our analysis.

In what was arguably the best last-16 match, the Turks dug deep to secure the win, but they certainly had some luck and didn't look very secure at the back. This doesn't bode well ahead of a game against a Netherlands team that offers a lot offensively.

See below for our Netherlands vs Turkey predictions:

Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score @ +125 with bet365
Hakan Calhanoglu Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ +138 with bet365
Kenan Yildiz to be Booked @ +400 with bet365
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Netherlands vs Turkey betting odds

According to early betting, the Netherlands have a 63.6% implied chance of success in this game, while the Turks have a 16.7% winning chance.

Bet	Odds
Netherlands to win	-175
Turkey to win	+500
Draw	+300

Using our own calculations, we believe that there’s a 65.2% chance that the Dutch win this game, with the Turks having a 15.4% chance of success.

Netherlands vs Turkey head-to-head statistics

The pair met twice during World Cup qualifying in 2021, with the Turks winning 4-2 in Istanbul, before the Dutch got their revenge and won 6-1 in Amsterdam.

In the last five encounters since 2013, there have been two Dutch wins, two Turkish wins, and a draw.

Netherlands vs Turkey preview

This match will be played on 07/06/2024 at Olympiastadion in Berlin. Kickoff will be at 3:00 PM ET.

We didn’t quite get to see the best of the Dutch during the group stages. They delivered moments of clear offensive promise when beating Poland 2-1 on match-day one, and they also looked good in patches against France.

Missed chances cost them against Austria, and they didn’t look very clinical even when beating Romania convincingly last time out.

However, we saw a team that can dominate against underdogs in that game against Romania, creating lots of chances, which bodes well ahead of a game against a Turkish side that still looks quite open to attack.

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The Turks battled hard against Austria last time out, showing no shortage of determination, while they looked a clear threat from set pieces. With players like Arda Guler and Hakan Calhanoglu, they have some creative talent who can definitely turn a game.

However, they continued to give up lots of chances, which is worrying against a Dutch team with plenty of offensive quality.

Make no mistake about it, this Turkey team has a very vocal following, which arguably saw them over the line against Austria, but the Dutch have fantastic fan support in Germany too, while they arguably have that little bit extra in terms of real final-third quality, especially with Cody Gakpo seemingly firing on all cylinders.

Netherlands vs Turkey betting picks

As the Netherlands and Turkey go head-to-head in what should be a very entertaining game, I’m once again taking three stabs in the betting.

Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score

If there’s a quarter-final that has goals written all over it, then it’s this one.

We saw during the last round that the Dutch were happy to attack. They’re more than happy to get on the front foot and go toe-to-toe with their opponents. Such an approach yielded much offensive success against a rather toothless Romanian team, but it could also see them come a little unstuck defensively in this one.

We know that this Turkey team carries a threat, they’ve proved that, but they’ve also proved that they’re unlikely to shut up shop, keeping no clean sheets. They also surrendered a rather sizable 2.73 xG against Austria last time out.

The Turks have been involved in plenty of high-scoring games already, with each of their four Euro 2024 matches containing three goals, while both teams have scored in three of those four.

Hakan Calhanoglu Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Both Kenan Yildiz and Arda Guler have looked like dangerous players for the Turks, but if there’s one Turkish player who brings real, tangible final-third quality, whether that’s in the form of a shot or a key pass, it’s Hakan Calhanoglu.

Calhanoglu’s long-range shooting ability and delivery have long been feared in Serie A and with good reason, as the man who has played for each of Milan’s biggest clubs has a deadly right foot.

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He scored a key goal for his team against the Czech’s in that final group game, while we know he likes to shoot, shooting eight times in three games at Euro 2024, averaging 0.68 shots on target.

Arriving fresher than most having missed the last game through suspension, Turkey’s captain and talisman will be hungry to lead by example here and he can do that by going for goal. For my money, he’s worth betting on to work the keeper at least once.

Kenan Yildiz to be Booked

Kenan Yildiz has shown some clear offensive qualities at this tournament, so much so that it’s not surprising that he’s considered to be an up-and-comer for Italian giants Juventus, but he’s also looked a little rash when things don’t go his way.

This is a game where the Turkish winger could be tasked with doing lots of defending, and I’m not sure he wants to be doing that. For my money, he’s looked every inch a player who’ll resort to cheap and silly fouls when the going gets tough, so he looks a little overpriced to pick up a booking here.

The 19-year-old has already received a booking in Germany, while he picked up three cards for Juventus last season, despite only making ten appearances.