Spain vs England Euro 2024 prediction, picks, preview

Despite underwhelming performances throughout the tournament, England has reached a second consecutive European Championship final. On Sunday night in Berlin, Gareth Southgate's squad will face Spain, the 2008 and 2012 champions.

Will the Three Lions rise to the occasion, or will they falter at the last hurdle? All will be revealed at the Olympiastadion in Berlin.

Spain vs. England prediction

For the Spain vs England match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-1 win for Spain based on our analysis.

Although England showed improvement against the Netherlands, particularly in the first half, their defense remains shaky. This doesn't bode well against a dominant and clinical Spanish side.

Here are our predictions for the Euro 2024 final:

• Spain to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ +150 with bet365

• Nico Williams to Score or Assist @ +225 with bet365

• Nico Williams to be Booked @ +550 with bet365

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Spain vs. England betting odds

For the first time at Euro 2024, England enters a match as the underdog. Current betting odds suggest Spain has a 42.1% chance of winning in regulation time, while England has a 28.6% chance.

Our calculations give Spain a 44.4% chance of winning in normal time, with England having a 27.8% chance. We also price the draw at +260, which equates to a 27.8% probability.

Spain vs. England head-to-head statistics

The last meeting between these teams was in 2018, when England won 3-2 in a UEFA Nations League match in Seville. Spain had previously won 2-1 at Wembley in the same competition. Over the last five encounters, both teams have won twice, with one draw. This is their first meeting in a major tournament since Euro 1996, where England won on penalties.

Spain vs. England match preview

The final will be held on July 14, 2024, at Berlin’s Olympiastadion, with kickoff at 3:00 PM ET.

Spain has looked strong from the outset in Germany, consistently performing well and reaching the final with relative ease. Even in a tight 2-1 win over France, they maintained control and could have shifted gears if needed.

Spain has been the most dangerous and consistent team in the tournament, excelling in creating and converting chances, especially from wide areas. If we're judging based on performances so far, it's tough to bet against La Roja.

For England, this marks their first major tournament final on foreign soil. Southgate's men will hope for some beginner’s luck, but they will need their best performance yet to overcome Spain.

While England showed more creativity and intensity against the Netherlands, their overall performance remains inconsistent. They managed an xG of 1.31 in their best game, while Spain has surpassed that in five of their six matches.

Even if xG isn’t everyone's favorite metric, it strongly suggests that Spain is more threatening than England, a fact that can't be ignored.

Spain vs. England betting picks

It's been a profitable tournament for individual match bets, and we hope to finish strong with these tips:

Spain to Score Over 1.5 Goals

Spain has been the most creative and highest-scoring team, with 13 goals in the tournament. They've scored two or more goals in two out of three knockout matches. England’s defense, while solid, may struggle against Spain's attack, which has averaged 1.81 xG per game. Odds of +150 for Spain to score over 1.5 goals seem generous.

Nico Williams to Score or Assist

Nico Williams has been a standout player, consistently creating chances and causing problems for defenses. With one goal and one assist in the tournament, odds of +225 for him to score or assist are appealing.

Nico Williams to be Booked

Williams has committed six fouls in the tournament, averaging 1.33 per 90 minutes, and was booked six times in LaLiga last season. If he’s tasked with defending against Bukayo Saka, odds of +550 for a booking are worth considering.

Recap - Spain vs. England betting picks:

• Spain to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ +150 with bet365

• Nico Williams to Score or Assist @ +225 with bet365

• Nico Williams to be Booked @ +550 with bet365

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