Toronto FC vs DC United Prediction, Picks & Best Bets

On Saturday evening, TFC will play on home soil in Major League Soccer for the first time since July. They’ll take on DC United, and not for the first time this season.

The visitors head out on the road following defeat at home last weekend. Can they bounce back? Read on for our Toronto FC vs DC United predictions.

Toronto FC vs DC United prediction

For the Toronto FC vs Real Lake match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 3-1 win for Toronto based on our analysis.

The hosts returned with a win last weekend, while they further boosted their confidence by beating Forge in the Canadian Cup during the week. Such efforts give them a platform from which to build against a DC team that is poor on the road.

Toronto FC to Win @ +100 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Lorenzo Insigne to Score @ +160 with DraftKings Sporsbook

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Toronto FC vs DC United betting odds

The early market (Moneyline) implies that the hosts have a 50% chance of winning this game. The table below shows all Moneyline implied probabilities, our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Bet	Odds	Implied probability	Our adjusted probability	Difference
Toronto FC	+100	50.0%	52.0%	+2.0%
DC United	+260	27.8%	23.1%	-4.7%
Tie	+260	27.8%	24.9%	-2.9%

Toronto FC vs DC United head-to-head statistics

This will be the second time that the pair have faced off this season. Earlier in the campaign, they tied 2-2 at Audi Field, with the hosts staging a late comeback after two first-half goals from TFC. Saturday’s hosts have won each of their last two home games against DC.

Toronto FC vs DC United preview

This game will take place on 31/08/2024 at BMO Field. Kick off will be at 20:30 local time.

During June and early July, TFC struggled, there’s no getting away from that rather simple fact, though John Herdman’s men have since turned things around.

Before there was a pause in the Major League Soccer schedule to accommodate the Leagues Cup, Saturday’s hosts won two out of three, beating the Philadelphia Union at home in good style, before picking up a win away in Montreal.

The Leagues Cup didn’t go that well, but it’s unlikely that the TFC boys will care too much about that, as they’ve got important work to do in MLS, which they’ve done well since the return.

Last weekend, they beat the Houston Dynamo, keeping a clean sheet in the process, while their midweek cup win will have given them further confidence.

For the visitors, well, the return hasn’t gone well. Sure, they scored three goals at home to FC Dallas last weekend, but that wasn’t enough for them to pick up any points as they once again offered little defensive resistance.

That effort doesn’t bode too well ahead of this trip to Canada, especially as they’ve struggled on the road this season. Troy Lesesne’s men have won just one of their last six traveling games. Not exactly what the doctor ordered as they journey to BMO Field.

Toronto FC vs DC United picks

Looking at the early lines ahead of this fixture, two bets appeal. Here we go.

Toronto FC to Win

Let’s be real, this looks like a good opportunity for the TFC boys to extend their pleasing return to domestic action. They certainly showed an improved level of defensive resistance on the road in Minnesota last time out, which is not something that the visitors have shown.

DC United’s lack of defensive strength really could be key here. Sure, the hosts haven’t always won at home, but even before they recently bounced back, they’d delivered a couple of decent efforts in defeat, efforts that suggest they could really hurt a weak DC rearguard.

Ultimately, the hosts have done a much better job of both picking up points and creating more than they concede at home than the visitors have on the road, which is hard to ignore.

With the home crowd behind them, having hit form of late, I’m betting on the hosts to get the job done here. Are you?

Lorenzo Insigne to Score

Little Lorenzo hasn’t quite lit up Major League Soccer like some players who’ve ventured over from one of Europe’s top leagues, though he has been absent on several occasions for various reasons, and when he plays, he usually has a big say for TFC.

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The Italian, whose behaviour when returning last time out wasn't exactly exemplary, has scored four MLS goals this season, averaging 0.32 goals per 90 minutes, which isn’t bad. Since he joined TFC, he’s scored an average of 0.35 goals per 90.

After playing well last time out in the cup, looking hungry, finding the net in neat style, Insigne should fancy himself to get back amongst the goals in MLS against a dodgy DC defense. At odds of +160, I’ll be betting on him to do just that.