The US Open train goes full steam ahead on Wednesday evening. With one semi-final already decided on the ATP side of things, two more places are up for grabs.
Can Jannik Sinner continue to prove that he’s the rightful world number one and reach his second Grand Slam final? Or will Daniil Medvedev, who lost to Sinner in the Australian Open final back in January, show why he’s featured in three US Open finals? Read on for our US Open predictions.
Wednesday’s US Open Tennis Picks
There are two matches taking place at Flushing Meadows on Wednesday evening, but the one in focus here from a betting point of view is the ATP clash between Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev, which is very much a heavyweight contest, one that has the potential to be a classic.
Our picks and predictions for this US Open match are as follows:
Daniil Medvedev to Win @ +230 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Daniil Medvedev +1.5 Set Handicap @ +100 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Best US Open betting offers
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Betting odds
The table below shows the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this US Open clash, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sinner to Win | -294 | 74.6% | 61.5% | -13.1% |
Medvedev to Win | +230 | 30.3% | 38.5% | +8.2% |
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev picks
This match will be played on 04/09/2024 at Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York. The match is due to begin at 21:30 local time.
As these two titans of the game clash at Flushing Meadows, I’m highlighting two picks, both of which look viable at the available odds.
Daniil Medvedev to Win
This is something of a colossal match, and let’s be real for a second, it really could go either way. We’re talking about two fantastic competitors, both of whom have looked in excellent form during the last week or so at the iconic venue of Flushing Meadows.
However, I’m struggling to agree with Jannik Sinner’s strong market dominance. I agree that the world number one should be the favorite here, but should he really be such a strong favorite? For my money, absolutely not.
We know that Medvedev loves the US Open. This is the Grand Slam where he really comes to life, and that’s why he’s already a one-time Flushing Meadows winner, as well as a three-time finalist.
When the pair met at Wimbledon a few months back, Medvedev came out on top, showing that he can grind it out against Sinner, while he’s beaten the Italian on this surface before too.
As the table above suggests, there’s value to be had by betting on the Russian to come out on top, as if we really think logically, he’s got to have a better chance of success than odds of +230 would have us believe.
Daniil Medvedev +1.5 Set Handicap
In addition to taking advantage of odds of +230, as something of a cover bet, betting on ‘Daniil Medvedev +1.5 Set Handicap’ also appeals.
The pair have twice met at Grand Slams this season, each winning once, and neither of those matches were decided by more than a single set.
Nothing about the way in which the Russian has swatted away the competition in confident style at this tournament suggests that he’s about to lose comfortably, so betting on him to, at the very least, lose by a minimum of one set, is easy to do all the time odds of +100 are floating around.
Recap - Wednesday’s US Open best bets
To summarize, our best bets for Wednesday’s US Open action are as follows:
Daniil Medvedev to Win @ +230 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Daniil Medvedev +1.5 Set Handicap @ +100 with DraftKings Sportsbook
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