US Open Day 11 Tennis Picks & Best Bets

Just like that, in the blink of an eye, we’re on day 11 of the US Open. The final Grand Slam of the year has flown by, that’s for sure, but fear not tennis fans, there are some superb matches still to come before it’s all over.

On the WTA side of things, we’re now down to the last four. Just one match stands in the way of the remaining four players and a place in the final of this iconic tournament.

Thursday’s US Open Tennis Picks

The main match on Thursday sees Emma Navarro, who has cited Flushing Meadows as holding a special place in her heart, take on Aryna Sabalenka.

Our picks and predictions for this semi final are:

Over 2.5 Sets @ +180 with bet365 US
Emma Navarro +1.5 Set Handicap @ +100 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Best US Open betting offers

Emma Navarro vs Aryna Sabalenka betting odds

Bet	Odds	Implied probability	Our adjusted probability	Difference
Navarro to Win	+320	23.8%	28.6%	+4.8%
Sabalenka to Win	-400	80.0%	71.4%	-8.6%

Emma Navarro vs Aryna Sabalenka picks

This match will be played on 05/09/2024 at Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York. The match is due to begin at 20:00 local time.

Ahead of this intriguing semi-final clash, two bets catch the eye from a value point of view:

Over 2.5 Sets

Emma Navarro has played out of her skin at Flushing Meadows this week and she’s clearly no easy opponent to face, so we shouldn’t for a second assume that this will be a walk in the park for Sabalenka.

Let’s face it Navarro has beaten some top players, including world number three Coco Gauff, who she shared three sets with.

Factor in that Sabalenka has already been to three sets in this tournament, coupled with the fact that the previous renewal of this fixture (on hard) went to three sets and betting on this match to go the distance starts to appeal at odds of +180.

Emma Navarro +1.5 Set Handicap

For many, Sabalenka is expected to win this match and win it in straight sets, but I cannot get behind that thinking.

Now ranked 12th in the world, Navarro is a much improved competitor and she’s clearly relishing battling it out on US soil. Having beaten the world number three, I’d be surprised if she didn’t make this a tough test for the world number two.

When the pair met on a hard surface in Indiana earlier in the season, Navarro won by two sets to one, so she can definitely compete here.

With odds of +100 available, the American competitor looks like a solid bet to, at the very least, avoid a straight set defeat.

Recap - Thursday’s US Open best bets

As things get very serious indeed at Arthur Ashe Stadium, here’s a recap of our best bets:

Over 2.5 Sets @ +180 with bet365 US

Emma Navarro +1.5 Set Handicap @ +100 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Author

Bradley Gibbs

Sports betting writer with more than 12 years worth of experience writing about several sports and gambling topics. Value bet finder looking for edges on football, horse racing, tennis and golf, all of which I have covered extensively as a writer. My work has featured on many websites, while I’ve also been published in The Racing & Football Outlook, a popular UK betting newspaper.