US Open Picks & Best Bets for Saturday: Sabalenka to be sorry she crossed Pegula?

Then there were two. Two WTA players remain, which means it’s time for the Women’s US Open Final, taking place on Saturday afternoon at the world famous Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Saturday’s US Open Tennis Picks

Two of the very best players on the planet will lock horns at Flushing Meadows on Saturday afternoon. Can Pegula defy the odds and upset the world number 2? Will Sabalenka be sorry for crossing the New Yorker? We’ll soon find out.

Our picks for Saturday’s WTA US Open Final are as follows:

Jessica Pegula +1.5 Set Handicap @ -110 with BetMGM Sportsbook

Best US Open betting offers

Jessica Pegula vs Sabalenka betting odds

See the table below for the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this match, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Bet	Odds	Implied probability	Our adjusted probability	Difference
Pegula to Win	+240	29.4%	33.3%	+3.9%
Sabalenka to Win	-303	75.2%	66.7%	-8.5%

Jessiga Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka picks

As we approach the Women’s US Open Final, there’s just one bet that stands out from a value point of view:

Jessica Pegula +1.5 Set Handicap

This is huge for Jessica Pegula, who comes from Buffalo, New York. If you asked the 30-year-old which of the four Grand Slams she wants most, the US Open is almost certainly what she’d say.

Of course, two-time Grand Slam champ Aryna Sabalenka is the world number two, while she’s the more seasoned of the pair in terms of Grand Slam final experience, playing in what will be her fourth Grand Slam final.

However, that extra experience at the very top of the game arguably brings with it a certain pressure to perform, which Pegula could use to her advantage.

Moreover, we’ve seen Pegula beat the best to get this far. She knocked out world number one Iga Swiatek in the quarter-finals, so don’t be surprised if she makes life very tough for Sabalenka.

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The US player is absolutely in the hard-court form of her life, losing just one of her last 15 matches on this surface, reaching her third straight tournament final.

Sure, she lost to Sabalenka in that final of the WTA event in Cincinnati three weeks ago, but I’d argue that she’s gone up a gear since then, while this tournament undoubtedly means more to the woman born in Buffalo.

And let’s not forget, this task is not beyond Pegula, who has won two of her four previous hard-court matches against Sabalenka, beating the Belarusian when the pair met on this type of court at the end of 2023.

All things considered, given how strong she’s been at Flushing Meadows, as deserving of favoritism that Sabalenka is, I cannot help but think that the disparity in pricing is a little too much.

Therefore, betting on Pegula to, at the very least, avoid a straight set defeat, is worth doing all the time odds of -110 are available.

Recap - Saturday’s US Open best bets

In summary, Saturday’s best US Open bets are:

Jessica Pegula +1.5 Set Handicap @ -110 with BetMGM Sportsbook

More sports betting content:

When betting on the US Open, make sure that you use a legal sportsbook. Check out our guide to the best tennis betting sites.

Author

Bradley Gibbs

Sports betting writer with more than 12 years worth of experience writing about several sports and gambling topics. Value bet finder looking for edges on football, horse racing, tennis and golf, all of which I have covered extensively as a writer. My work has featured on many websites, while I’ve also been published in The Racing & Football Outlook, a popular UK betting newspaper.