On Saturday evening, Major League Soccer is back in full flow after the international break left us with a heavily reduced fixture list last weekend.
From a betting point of view, we’re interested in the fixture between St. Louis City and Minnesota, which will take place at CITYPARK. Read on for our St. Louis City vs Minnesota predictions.
St. Louis City vs Minnesota prediction
For the St. Louis City vs Minnesota match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-1 win for the hosts based on our analysis.
St. Louis City to Win @ +105 with Bet365 US
Chris Durkin to be Booked @ +260 with bet365 US
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St. Louis City vs Minnesota betting odds
The table below shows the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this MLS fixture, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis City | +105 | 34.5% | 41.2% | +6.7% |
Minnesota | +225 | 30.8% | 29.4% | -1.4% |
Tie | +250 | 26.7% | 29.4% | +2.7% |
St. Louis City vs Minnesota head-to-head statistics
This will be just the third renewal of this fixture. The pair met twice during the 2023 campaign, with Saturday’s hosts winning away from home, after losing to the Loons at this venue.
St. Louis City vs Minnesota preview
This game will take place on 14/09/2024 at CITYPARK. Kick off will be at 20:30 local time.
Turning it around is what the St. Louis City boys are doing right now. Everyone involved at CITYPARK knew that things weren’t going well, with the team that topped the Western Conference last season struggling to get going this time around.
However, in recent weeks, with John Hackworth temporarily in charge, Saturday’s hosts have improved. They’re unbeaten since MLS returned at the end of August, while they’ve now lost none of their last four league games.
It’s been a mixed bag from the Loons since Major League Soccer returned following the conclusion of the Leagues Cup. They lost at home to the Sounders, before beating the San Jose Earthquakes away from home last time out.
Eric Ramsay’s men will now be looking to kick on, but their overall away record isn't too pleasing, let’s be honest.
St. Louis City vs Minnesota picks
Looking at the early lines, two bets stick out from a value point of view, both of which involve the hosts:
St. Louis City to Win
As the table above suggests, I’m very much of the opinion that there’s value to be had by betting on the home win ahead of this game.
The hosts have started to shift through the gears, with the recent arrival of German pair Cedric Teuchert and Marcel Hartel making a big difference. Since those two have been introduced to St. Louis line-up, Hackworth’s men have started to tick, offering much more offensively.
If we consider that the visitors have generally struggled away from home, winning only one of their last eight MLS road games, six of which they’ve lost, often surrendering more than they’ve created, betting on St. Louis City to win really does appeal at odds of +105.
Chris Durkin to be Booked
From a player-prop angle, I’m taking St. Louis’ Chris Durkin to go into the referee’s notebook. The American midfielder is struggling to keep himself out of trouble this season, that’s for sure.
Durkin has now been booked ten times this season, picking up an average of 0.40 cards per 90 minutes, making odds of +260 look somewhat user-friendly, as does the fact that the 24-year-old commits an average of 2.37 fouls per 90 minutes.
Recap - St. Louis City vs Minnesota best bets
In summary, the two best bets ahead of this MLS game are:
St. Louis City to Win @ +105 with Bet365 US
Chris Durkin to be Booked @ +260 with bet365 US
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