On the ATP this week, players have been busy working away in China, at not one but two tournaments. Here we are focusing on the Chengdu Open, where on the fifth day of the tournament, there’s a match that catches the eye from a betting point of view.
For US viewers/bettors, depending on delays, this match will either take place late on Saturday night or early on Sunday morning.
Sunday’s ATP Tennis Picks
The match in focus here is the showdown between Nicolas Jarry and Alibek Kachmazov, who are meeting in the quarter-finals of this tournament.
Our picks and predictions for this ATP match at the Chengdu Open:
Nicolas Jarry to Win @ -150 with DraftKings Sportsbook
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Nicolas Jarry vs Alibek Kachmazov betting odds
See below for the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this match, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jarry to Win | -150 | 60% | 63.8% | +3.8% |
Kachmazov to Win | +130 | 43.5% | 36.2% | -7.3% |
Nicolas Jarry vs Alibek Kachmazov picks
Ahead of this ATP match-up between a proven performer and an up-and-comer, only one bet appeals looking at the early lines:
Nicolas Jarry to Win
Sure, the Chilean competitor is the favorite here and he’s quite a strong one, but I really would argue that he should be even stronger in the early market.
I won’t try and pretend that Kachmazov is a complete no-hoper and the youngster has performed very well in Chengdu so far, but this is by far his toughest test and I’m just not sure that we’ve seen enough from the young Russian to suggest that it’s a test he can pass.
Kachmazov is not really used to coming up against players of Jarry’s level and let’s face it, Jarry is close to being over of the very top players on the ATP.
Jarry hasn’t exactly been in amazing hard-court form of late, but he got the job done in the last round, beating a player ranked much higher than Kachmazov, while we saw that he can be a serious competitor on this surface when beating the likes of Casper Ruud and James Draper earlier in the season.
Moreover, the man from Chile enjoyed playing in this part of the world last season, winning five out of seven matches in China, beating some much better players than Kachmazov.
Ultimately, the Chilean is expected to have too much in the locker for his opponent here and the early odds really could reflect that a bit more accurately, so betting on Jarry to win at the early odds offers a smidgen of value for money.
Recap - Nicolas Jarry vs Alibek Kachmazov best bets
In summary, our best bet for this ATP match is:
Nicolas Jarry to Win @ -150 with DraftKings Sportsbook
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