This week, things are a little different as last week’s tournament will not conclude until the early hours of Tuesday morning (for those in the US at least).
After just over a week of play in the Chinese city of Chengdu, we’ve reached the final of this tournament, which is naturally our next port of call from a tennis betting point of view. Read on for our ATP predictions.
Tuesday’s WTA Tennis Picks
This final will be contested by Italian Lorenzo Musetti and Chinese player Juncheng Shang, who are meeting competitively for the first time.
Our picks and predictions for the final of the ATP event in Chengdu are:
Over 23.5 Games @ +110 with DraftKings Sportsbook
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Lorenzo Musetti vs Juncheng Shang betting odds
See below for the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this match, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Musetti to Win | -137 | 57.8% | 53.3% | -4.5% |
Shang to Win | +110 | 47.6% | 46.7% | -0.9% |
Lorenzo Musetti vs Juncheng Shang picks
Ahead of Tuesday’s final, based on the early lines, just one bet appeals:
Over 23.5 Games
As the higher-ranked player, Lorenzo Musetti is the strong favorite, though as the table suggests, I’m not sure that there’s any value to be had by betting on the Italian to come out on top.
As the table above also shows, there’s probably not any value taking Shang to win the match either, at least not with the lines as they are right now.
For my money, betting on plenty of games to be played is the way to go. Based on what we’ve seen from each player in Chengdu so far, betting on this match to contain at least 24 games offers some value for money at odds of +110.
Both players have not only looked in strong form, but both have looked up for the battle too, so it would be rather surprising if either were to lose tamely now that we’ve reached the final.
Moreover, Musetti has won only one of his matches at this tournament in straight sets, and that was against a much lower-ranked player than Shang, who in recent times has really battled well against higher-ranked players, as we saw when he lost in five sets to Casper Ruud at the US Open.
The Chinese player’s match against Bublik at the US Open also went to five sets, while only one of Musetti’s last six hard-court matches contained the minimum numbers of sets, meaning that at least 24 games were played in all but one of those six.
At the end of the day, sure, the pressure could get to one of these players, but I think there’s enough evidence to suggest that we could be in a for a real battle, one that could easily go all the way, so betting on ‘Over 23.5 Games’ is a viable option.
Recap - Tuesday’s ATP best bets
To summarize, our best bet for Tuesday’s ATP final in Chengdu is:
Over 23.5 Games @ +110 with DraftKings Sportsbook
When betting on ATP tennis competitions, please be sure to use a legal sportsbook. To help with this, check out our guide to the best tennis betting sites.
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