It wasn’t to be for Paolini on Monday. The Italian never quite got going and not only failed to win in straight sets, but she failed to win, losing by two sets to nil. On we move to Tuesday’s action.
The betting focus switches from the WTA to the ATP now. On Tuesday, it’s time for the men’s Japan Open final, which will be an all French affair. Read on for our free ATP predictions and picks.
Tuesday’s Tennis Picks
The final of the ATP event in Tokyo will be contested by Arthur Fils and Ugo Humbert, who are meeting competitively for the fifth time.
Our predictions and picks ahead of the ATP Japan Open Final are:
Arthur Fils to Win @ +155 DraftKings Sportsbook
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Arthur Fils vs Ugo Humbert betting odds
See below for the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this match, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Fils to Win | +155 | 39.2% | 47.5% | +8.3% |
Humbert to Win | -192 | 65.8% | 52.5% | -13.3% |
Arthur Fils vs Ugo Humbert picks
Based on the early lines, there’s value to be had by siding with the Italian to pick up a straight-set victory here.
Arthur Fils to Win
As the adjusted probabilities in the betting table above show, I am very much of the opinion that Ugo Humbert’s chance of winning this final is being overestimated by the early market.
Let’s face it, there’s not a great deal between the pair in the rankings, while I’d absolutely argue that Fils has achieved more by reaching this final that Humbert, who has had a relatively simple run and who didn’t exactly create the best impression when beating Tomas Machac in three sets during the semis.
In contrast, Fils beat Holger Rune in straight sets, showing not only lots of hard-court tennis quality, but bags of heart and resilience to dig deep and win not one but two tense tie breaks.
That straight-set win over Rune should hold Fils in good stead ahead of this match. Now, sure, Humbert has a promising record against Fils, but he’s been around longer and has often had experience on his side.
This time around, I’m not sure that Humbert’s extra experience will count for much as Fils is arguably showing the hard-court form of his life and is clearly thriving right now. Let’s face it, he’s beaten both Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton, who won this event last year, to reach the final.
Both Fritz and Shelton are better players than Humbert, so for my money, Fils really does deserve more respect than he’s getting from the early market. In other words, betting on the younger player to beat his senior compatriot offers a nice chunk of value.
Recap - Tuesday’s ATP best bets
To recap, our best bet ahead of this intriguing ATP clash is:
Arthur Fils to Win @ +155 DraftKings Sportsbook
When planning to bet on ATP tennis competitions, then we advise you to use a legal and legitimate sportsbook. To help with this, check out our guide to the best tennis betting sites.
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