Tennis Picks & Best Bets for WTA China Open Day Nine

Amanda Anisimova did the job today, winning the first set and avoiding a straight-set defeat against Qinwen Zheng, who eventually outclassed the American, but we got the win with the ‘+1.5 Set Handicap’ bet.

We move on to Thursday, when it’s quarter-final time in Beijing. The world number two is in action, presenting us with an interesting betting opportunity. Read on for our free WTA predictions.

Thursday's Tennis Picks

One of the quarter-finals taking place at the China Open sees Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka face Czech player Karolina Muchova.

Our predictions and picks for this WTA Beijing match are:

• Karolina Muchova to Win @ +195 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova betting odds

See below for the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this match, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova picks

Given the early lines, it’s worth taking on the strong favorite:

Karolina Muchova to Win

Listen, Aryna Sabalenka is one of the very best players on the planet, make absolutely no mistake about that and she is good enough to win this, of course. It really won’t be a surprise if she comes through unscathed, that’s not what I’m saying at all.

However, as was the case yesterday when Anisimova took on Zheng, I’m just not sure that Muchova is getting the respect that she deserves. Of course, the world number two should be the favorite here, but should she be such a strong favorite against a player of Muchova’s quality? Probably not.

So far at this tournament, Sabalenka has been flawless, winning each of her three matches in straight sets, though the same can be said for Muchova, who is a serious hard-court competitor. Let’s face it, the Czech player reached the semi-finals of the US Open recently, while she’s only lost two of her matches on this surface since leaving the clay behind back in July.

Moreover, Muchova, who is a Grand-Slam finalist and four-time Grand Slam semi-finalist, has an encouraging record against Sabalenka, beating her not once, but twice in 2023, including on a hard surface.

For my money, the Czech player is good enough (and in strong enough form) to do better than the early lines suggest, making her a value bet to cause an upset.

Recap - Thursday’s WTA best bets

To recap, our best bet ahead of this WTA Beijing match is:

Karolina Muchova to Win @ +195 with DraftKings Sportsbook

If you're planning to bet on WTA tennis competitions, then we advise you to use a legal and legitimate sportsbook. To help with this, check out our guide to the best tennis betting sites.