Cincinnati vs NYCFC Prediction, Picks & Best Bets

On Tuesday evening, both Cincinnati and NYCFC will begin their postseason campaigns as the pair lock horns at TQL Stadium, where both will be looking to make a winning start.

During the regular season, home advantage played a big part for both in this fixture. Will that be the case for a third time? Read on for our Cincinnati vs NYCFC predictions and picks.

Cincinnati vs NYCFC prediction

For the Cincinnati vs NYCFC match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-2 tie based on our analysis.

Both regular-season renewals of this fixture were close, with both teams causing the other a similar amount of damage, so don’t be surprised if we see a relatively high-scoring tie at TQL Stadium on Tuesday.

Our Cincinnati vs NYCFC predictions and picks are:

• Over 3.0 Asian Total @ -105 with DraftKings Sportsbook

• Moneyline Tie @ +260 with BetMGM Sportsbook

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Cincinnati vs NYCFC betting odds

The table below shows the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this MLS fixture, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Cincinnati vs NYCFC head-to-head statistics

During 2024, the pair have met no less than three times, facing off twice in Major League Soccer, with each team winning on home soil, while they also met in the Leagues Cup, with Cincinnati winning by four goals to two at this venue.

Cincinnati vs NYCFC preview

This game will take place on 28/10/2024 at TQL Stadium. Kick off will be 19:45 local time.

Having been right up with the pace for much of the regular season, Cincinnati’s play-off position was never really in doubt, which is just as well with Pat Noonan’s men ending the regular season in quite poor form.

Before the final regular-season game, Tuesday’s hosts had gone four games without a win, three of which they lost. Fortunately, they did bounce back last time out, beating the Philadelphia Union away from home to build momentum ahead of the postseason.

For the visitors, well, the opposite is true. It looked for all to see that they were heading into the play-offs in strong form, beating the likes of their rivals New York Red Bulls, as well as Tuesday’s opponents and Nashville.

Sadly, three wins on the bounce did not propel Nick Cushing’s men to final-day glory. Instead, the NYCFC boys came up short in Montreal, losing by two goals to nil. Fortunately, their play-off place was already confirmed, though a better result in that game would likely have seen the boys from the Bronx go to TQL Stadium in better spirits.

Cincinnati vs NYCFC picks

Based on the early lines, I’m siding with two picks ahead of this play-off game.

Over 3.0 Asian Total

Goals look on the cards at TQL Stadium. We know that the visitors won’t just sit back as they’ve been at their best when playing on the front foot of late, while we also know that the hosts adopt a rather cavalier approach, one that lends itself to high-scoring games.

When the pair met just a couple of weeks ago in New York, they shared five goals, while each of Cincinnati’s last six games have contained three goals, with four or more goals being scored in three of their last five.

For Cushing’s men, there’s also been a steady flow of goals in recent weeks, with four or more being scored in three of their last four games. This is also a team that has a record of being involved in goal-filled games when facing the big boys on the road.

Let’s look at NYCFC’s recent away results in what can be described as big games:

• Won 1-5 against the New York Red Bulls

• Lost 4-2 against the Columbus Crew

• Lost 4-2 against Cincinnati

• Tied 2-2 against Atlanta United

Does the early market anticipate the likelihood of a high-scoring game accurately enough? For my money, not quite, making odds of -105 worth taking here.

Moneyline Tie

I’m also siding with the tie here. As the table above suggests, odds of +260 offer a smidgen of value for money.

Listen, there’s plenty to like about both teams; both can score goals, while both are likely to show little fear, as we saw when they were recently separated by just a goal in the Bronx.

That game could easily have been a tie, and I’m just not sure that odds of +260 accurately shows the chance of a stalemate. Such a price offers value as far as I’m concerned. After all, the visitors have tied four of their last seven on the road in Major League Soccer.

Recap - Cincinnati vs NYCFC best bets

Here we have it, our Cincinnati vs NYCFC best bets:

Over 3.0 Asian Total @ -105 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline Tie @ +260 with BetMGM Sportsbook

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