Sadly, yesterday’s bet did not go well, not well at all, with Ana Bogdan delivering what can only be described as a disappointing performance, losing in straight sets. Ana, if you’re out there, I expected so much more.
We move on to Wednesday’s action, where ahead of the action at the ATP event in Paris, known also as the Paris Masters, there are several interesting clashes. Read on for our ATP predictions and best bets.
Wednesday’s WTA Tennis Picks
There are several ATP matches of note taking place in the French capital on Wednesday, but from a betting point of view, few are more appealing than the clash between Arthur Fils and Jan Lennard Struff
Jan-Lennard Struff to Win @ +175 with BetMGM Sportsbook
Jan-Lennard Struff to Win the First Set @ +138 with BetMGM Sportsbook
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Arthur Fils vs Jan Lennard Struff betting odds
See below shows the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this match, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Fils to Win | -225 | 69.2% | 60.8% | -8.4% |
J.L. Struff to Win | +175 | 36.4% | 39.2% | +2.8% |
Arthur Fils vs Jan Lennard Struff picks
Looking at the early lines, I’m going to take two swings at this match.
Jan Lennard Struff to Win
Jan Lennard Struff is the underdog here, which is not too surprising given that he’s up against Arthur Fils, who is a higher-ranked player and a very good one at that.
However, on his day, Struff can tussle with top players, there’s no doubt about that, while his serve is a deadly weapon on fast courts such as those in Paris.
Players who have a high first-serve win percentage tend to do well on these courts and there are few better than Struff in that respect, which is a clear positive, though I’m not sure this is being factored into the prices quite enough.
Not seen often since the end of the clay-court season, the German played well on his return to push world number 10 Alex De Minaur to three sets in Vienna. He followed that pleasing comeback effort with a very solid straight-set win against Lorenzo Musetti in the first round in Paris. That win against the world number 16 tells me that he could easily upset Fils here.
After all, as good as Fils has been of late, he’s not averse to losing matches where he’s the favorite. We saw him lose to the lower-ranked Carballes Baena in Shanghai not long ago.
Listen, I’m not saying that Jan Lennard Struff should win this match, and I’m certainly not saying that Arthur Fils, who has absolutely taken his game to the next level in recent months, shouldn't be the favorite in the betting. As the table above suggests, he is the most likely winner here, but he shouldn’t be as strong as he is, no way.
Frankly, Struff deserves more respect and thus taking him to win this one at inflated odds offers us value for money, which for anyone keen to grind out a profit over time, is key.
Jan Lennard Struff to Win the First Set
In addition to betting on Struff to win the match, I’m also going to bet on the German to win the first set, which at odds of +138 may also be generously priced.
Against Musetti last time out, Struff’s ability to hold his service game proved to be invaluable and I think we could see something similar here.
Fils was close to losing the first set against veteran Cilic during the first round, so we really shouldn’t be surprised if he comes unstuck here against a much more dangerous opponent.
Recap - Wednesday’s ATP tennis best bets
Ahead of day three at the Paris Masters, our best bets are as follows:
Jan-Lennard Struff to Win @ +175 with BetMGM Sportsbook
Jan-Lennard Struff to Win the First Set @ +138 with BetMGM Sportsbook
Before betting on ATP tennis competitions, such as the Hong Kong Open, then we advise you to use a legal and legitimate sportsbook. To help with this, check out our guide to the best tennis betting sites.
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