It’s that time again, time for the best female players on the planet to compete for what is the highly acclaimed year-end title.
The very best of those on the WTA will descend on the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh, where the WTA Finals are due to take place, starting on Saturday. Read on for our WTA Finals tennis picks and best bets.
Saturday’s WTA Tennis Picks
On Saturday, from a betting point of view, I’m getting straight down to business with the first match as world number one Aryna Sabalenka takes on recent tournament winner and world number seven Qinwen Zheng.
Aryna Sabalenka to Win 2-0 @ +100 with BetMGM Sportsbook
Aryna Sabalenka -4.5 Game Handicap @ +116 with BetMGM Sportsbook
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng betting odds
See below for the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this match, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sabalenka to Win | -250 | 71.4% | 75.2% | +3.8% |
Zheng to Win | +200 | 33.3% | 24.8% | -8.5% |
Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng picks
Looking at the early lines here, I’m taken by two bets.
Aryna Sabalenka to Win 2-0
I’ll start by saying that Qinwen Zheng is an excellent player, as she proved by winning the event in the Japanese capital of Tokyo last week. However, I think the early market has overreacted to that slightly.
Sure, Zheng is a very good player, but Sabalenka is even better, and for my money, the disparity between the pair is greater than the current odds suggest.
Had Zheng not won that tournament in Japan - where despite playing some fabulous tennis, she didn’t have to face a top-10 player - she would be much bigger in the betting than odds of +200, let’s be honest.
When the pair met at the US Open back in September, Zheng was +275, which is more like it. On that occasion, Sabalenka won in straight sets, doing so with loads in hand.
It’s not as if Sabalenka hasn’t been in decent form of late either, winning each of her five matches in Wuhan to land the title when we last saw her (three weeks ago).
In that Wuhan final, she beat Zheng. OK, she didn’t win in straight sets, but having now had a decent rest and lots of time to prepare for this, I really wouldn’t be surprised if she returned with a bang here.
After all, Sabalenka has beaten Zheng in straight sets in three of their four previous matches and as the table above suggests, she’s quite simply generously priced here.
This bet can currently be taken at odds of +100. As far as I’m concerned, it should be available around the -130 mark, so we’re definitely getting value for money by taking +100.
Aryna Sabalenka -4.5 Game Handicap
All the time odds of +116 are available, as they are at BetMGM (at the time of writing), it’s worth betting that Sabalenka wins by five clear games too.
When the pair met in Wuhan in October, there was a four-game deficit in Sabalenka’s favor, but I’m expecting her to step on the gas and open up the gap a little more here.
At the end of the day, the recent Pan Pacific Open winner no longer has the benefit of playing on home soil, while the world number one beat Zheng 6-1, 6-2 when the pair met in September, while back in January 2024, she beat her Chinese opponent 6-3, 6-2.
Recap - Saturday’s WTA tennis best bets
As two in-form players battle it out in Riyadh, here’s our best bets:
Aryna Sabalenka to Win 2-0 @ +100 with BetMGM Sportsbook
Aryna Sabalenka -4.5 Game Handicap @ +116 with BetMGM Sportsbook
If you're betting on WTA tennis competitions, such as the Hong Kong Open, then we advise you to use a legal and legitimate sportsbook. To help with this, check out our guide to the best tennis betting sites.
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