On Saturday, we looked to get back on the horse from a tennis point of view and jump back on we did, with not one but two winners as Aryna Sabalenka flexed her muscles against Qinwen Zhang, winning in straight sets and covering -4.5 handicap. Very nice indeed.
It’s now time to keep the winning streak alive, and we’ll be doing that by attacking Monday’s action at the Moselle Open in France. Read on for our ATP tennis picks and best bets.
Monday’s ATP Tennis Picks
From a betting viewpoint, ahead of Monday’s ATP action in France, the match between Cam Norrie and Roberto Carballes Baena appeals.
Roberto Carballes Baena to Win @ +132 with BetMGM Sportsbook
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Cam Norrie vs Roberto Carballes Baena betting odds
See below shows the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this match, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Norrie to Win | -140 | 58.3% | 48.9% | -9.5% |
Carballes Baena to Win | +132 | 43.1% | 51.1% | +8.0% |
Cam Norrie vs Roberto Carballes Baena picks
I’m siding with the supposed underdog ahead of this match.
Roberto Carballes Baena to Win
This is a match between two players looking to bounce back, with Cam Norrie losing to Quentin Halys in the qualification rounds for the Paris Masters and Roberto Carballes Baena losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round.
Both players lost last time out, but they were two very different losses and that should not be ignored. In fact, that’s rather significant. While Cam Norrie lost to a lower-ranked player in a rather disappointing fashion, his Spanish opponent pushed the world number 11 to a third set. Let’s be real, if Carballes Baena repeats his last performance here, he’ll likely come out on top.
We’ve seen the Spaniard play some solid tennis of late, pushing De Minaur to three sets in Antwerp, while he’s beaten the likes of Muller and Koepfer in straight sets, not to mention Arthur Fils. Such form is hard to ignore when we consider that we’re talking about a match against an out-of-sorts Cam Norrie, who is far from at his best right now.
The British player comes into this tournament off the back of four straight defeats, exiting four tournaments at the first time of asking, winning just one set in the process. It’s not as if he’s only lost to top players either, with three of his last four conquerors ranking below Carballes Baena.
To be quite honest, there’s more than enough recent evidence to suggest that Carballes Baena should be a slight favourite here, so while he’s not, bettors can grab some all-important value by betting on the Spaniard to win at odds of +132.
Recap - Monday’s ATP tennis best bets
As we get down to business in Metz on Monday, here’s our best bets:
Roberto Carballes Baena to Win @ +132 with BetMGM Sportsbook
Before betting on ATP tennis competitions, such as the Hong Kong Open, then we advise you to use a legal and legitimate sportsbook. To help with this, check out our guide to the best tennis betting sites.
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