At the time of writing, Monday’s pick is yet to occur, but we’re already looking to spot our next value play, such is the fast-moving world of tennis betting.
On Tuesday, I’m switching my focus back to the WTA Finals, where there are a couple of interesting matches. Read on for our WTA tennis picks and best bets.
Tuesday’s WTA Tennis Picks
Tuesday’s main port of call from a betting point of view will be the WTA Finals match between Jessica Pegula and Barbora Krejčíková.
Sporting Post’s Jessica Pegula vs Barbora Krejčíková’s picks and predictions:
Barbora Krejčíková +3.5 Game Handicap @ -115 with BetMGM Sportsbook
Barbora Krejčíková to Win @ +175 with BetMGM Sportsbook
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Jessica Pegula vs Barbora Krejčíková betting odds
See below for the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this match, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Pegula to Win | -213 | 68.1% | 56.3% | -11.8% |
Krejčíková to Win | +175 | 36.4% | 42.7% | +6.3% |
Jessica Pegula vs Barbora Krejčíková picks
Looking at the early lines, I’m interested in two bets here, both of which favor the Czech player.
Barbora Krejčíková +3.5 Game Handicap
Back in early September, Jessica Pegula was in the form of her career, reaching the US Open Final, defeating some top players before losing to the now world number one Aryna Sabalenka.
However, since then, the American has stuttered slightly, which after a long season, is not uncommon. She did beat both Kudermetova and Parry in Beijing, but neither of those wins were too impressive, while she’s since lost three out of four hard-court matches.
Having come through against Potapova, thanks to a retirement, Pegula folded rather tamely against Wang Xin, while she was no match for Coco Gauff in her first match at this event.
Barbora Krejčíková hasn’t exactly been in great form either, there can be no denying that, but she showed plenty of improvement and clear signs of life when pushing Iga Swiatek to three sets last time out.
Not only did she beat one of the best players on the planet in the first set, but she pushed the Pole to a 12th game in the second set. Such an effort was admirable, suggesting that she could quite easily get more competitive against an out-of-form Pegula than the early odds would have us believe.
To be honest, off the back of her best effort for a while, the Czech player should be capable of, at the very least, pushing Pegula really hard here, and thus she looks a decent bet to cover a ‘+3.5 Game Handicap’.
Barbora Krejčíková to Win
Listen, am I saying that Barbora Krejčíková will absolutely go out and get the better of Jessica Pegula on Tuesday? Of course not. Let’s be real, I haven’t got a crystal ball.
Realistically, though, given her hugely encouraging effort against Swiatek, not to mention the fact that Pegula has been off the pace in recent matches, it’s not difficult to conclude that the Czech player, who we shouldn't forget picked up her second Grand Slam when winning Wimbledon earlier in the year, deserves much more respect.
As the table above suggests, she doesn’t warrant being as big as +175. For my money, such odds offer clear value, and value is what I’m looking for, make no mistake about that.
I really would not be surprised if Krejčíková shortens as this match gets closer, so at the very least, by taking odds of +175, you should beat the closing line and have an edge over the early market.
Recap - Tuesday’s WTA tennis best bets
As the WTA Finals continue, ahead of Tuesday’s action, here are our best bets:
Barbora Krejčíková +3.5 Game Handicap @ -115 with BetMGM Sportsbook
Barbora Krejčíková to Win @ +175 with BetMGM Sportsbook
When betting on WTA tennis competitions, such as the Hong Kong Open, then we advise you to use a legal and legitimate sportsbook. To help with this, check out our guide to the best tennis betting sites.
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