Wednesday’s Tennis Picks & Best Bets for WTA Finals Day Five

After the disappointment of Roberto Carballes Baena, who despite being a set to the good and a break up, in both the second and third sets, lost to Cameron Norrie, we bounced back in fine style with two winners on Tuesday as Barbora Krejčíková defied the odds to get job done against Jessica Pegula, proving that she was absolutely better than the early odds suggested.

Now, we move on to Wednesday’s action, and we’ll be sticking with the WTA Finals. Read on for our WTA tennis picks and best bets.

Wednesday’s WTA Tennis Picks

On Wednesday, I’m interested in the encounter between Jasmine Paolini and Qinwen Zheng, which is due to take place around 08:30 EST, though as is often the case with tennis, this is subject to delay.

Jasmine Paolini vs Qinwen Zheng picks:

• Jasmine Paolini +1.5 Set Handicap @ -115 with BetMGM Sportsbook

• Over 2.5 Sets @ +160 with BetMGM Sportsbook

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Jasmine Paolini vs Qinwen Zheng betting odds

See below for the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this match, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Jasmine Paolini vs Qinwen Zheng picks

Looking at the early lines here, two bets appeal.

Jasmine Paolini +1.5 Set Handicap

I’ll get straight to it here and say that Paolini really does look to have a better chance here than the early odds would have us believe.

At the end of the day, this is a match between the world number four and the world number seven, so should Paolini really be such a big outsider? The answer as far as I’m concerned is no, she should not.

I feel that Zheng is being priced on the strength of her recent tournament win, which I don’t quite agree with. I’d absolutely argue that Paolini put up a slightly stronger fight against Sabalenka than Zheng, while if we look at the head-to-head between the two, then we can see that Paolini has only lost one out of three in straight sets.

We know that Paolini can tussle with the best, I mean, she’s reached not one, but two Grand Slam finals in the last year, while she comes here having beaten Elen Rybakina in taking fashion just a few days ago, suggesting that she’s still got plenty left in the tank.

Sure, when the pair met in the quarters in Wuhan just under a month ago, Zheng won, but she needed three sets to get the job done, while she no longer has the advantage of playing on home soil.

At the end of the day, based on what both players have achieved over the last month or so, Zheng is a worthy favorite, but I pose a similar question to the one above: should the Chinese player be as strong as she currently is? For my money, as the table above suggests, definitely not.

Therefore, placing a bet on Jasmine Paolini to avoid a straight-set defeat makes plenty of sense at what can only be described as generous odds.

Over 2.5 Sets

Following a similar thought pattern, betting on this match to go the distance in terms of sets also appeals. After all, the pair shared three sets in Wuhan recently, while two of their previous three matches have contained three sets.

I’ll keep this short and sweet. With this likely to be more of a hard-fought contest than the early odds suggest, the likelihood of a three-set match unfolding appears to be greater than odds of +160 would have us believe. Taking such a price offers us some all-important value for money.

Recap - Wednesday’s WTA tennis best bets

To confirm, ahead of this interesting WTA clash, the best value bet is as follows:

Jasmine Paolini +1.5 Set Handicap @ -115 with BetMGM Sportsbook

Over 2.5 Sets @ +160 with BetMGM Sportsbook

When betting on WTA tennis competitions, such as the Hong Kong Open, then we advise you to use a legal and legitimate sportsbook. To help with this, check out our guide to the best tennis betting sites.