Cincinnati vs NYCFC Prediction, Picks & Best Bets

We’re locked at one each as Cincinnati and NYCFC continue to fight for a place in the next stage of the Major League Soccer play-offs.

The NYCFC boys kept themselves in the hunt by winning on home soil last time out, but they’ve now got to replicate that on the road in Cincinnati, which looks like a big ask. Read on for our Cincinnati vs NYCFC predictions and picks.

Cincinnati vs NYCFC prediction

For the Cincinnati vs NYCFC game prediction, we believe the final score will be a 3-1 win for the hosts based on our analysis.

On home soil, the Orange and Blue can hurt anyone and they’ve got the firepower to outscore an NYCFC team that is simply not as effective away from the comforts of Yankee Stadium.

Our Cincinnati vs NYCFC predictions and picks:

• Cincinnati to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ -138 with DraftKings Sportsbook

• Over 3.0 Asian Total @ +110 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Cincinnati vs NYCFC betting odds

The table below shows the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this MLS fixture, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Cincinnati vs NYCFC head-to-head statistics

There are no secrets between these two, who’ve now met three times since October, with NYCFC winning two of those and Cincinnati winning one. All three of those fixtures have gone the way of the home team. Interestingly, three of the last four renewals of this fixture have contained at least four goals.

Cincinnati vs NYCFC preview

This game will take place on 09/11/2024 at TQL Stadium. Kick off will be at 18:00 local time.

After their hugely dominant win against NYCFC on home soil just over a week ago, the Cincinnati boys will undoubtedly have been hoping to wrap things up in the second game at Yankee Stadium. That didn’t happen, but we probably shouldn’t overreact to what happened there.

Sure, the boys from the Bronx leveled things with that win on home soil last weekend, meaning that they’ll go to TQL Stadium feeling confident, but as anyone who has followed MLS throughout the season will know, Nick Cushing’s men are not quite as effective away from home.

In contrast, the Orange and Blue can be very destructive at home, which is where they are undoubtedly at their best. An interesting game awaits those both in attendance and watching from afar.

Cincinnati vs NYCFC picks

Based on the early lines, two bets appeal ahead of this all-important play-off clash.

Cincinnati to Score Over 1.5 Goals

We’ve had two of the three games in this series already and Saturday’s hosts are yet to score two goals, but I really wouldn’t be too put off by that.

Let’s face it, when the teams met at this venue a week ago, the hosts were hugely dominant. They scored once and created enough chances to score at least two more goals, generating a very impressive 3.05 expected goals. On the strength of that effort, home goals should probably be priced a little generously here.

The teams have met twice at this venue since August, with Cincinnati scoring a total of five goals, so don’t be surprised if their often high-scoring offense shifts through the gears on Saturday evening. I certainly won’t be.

Over 3.0 Asian Total

Given what we’ve seen in the recent renewals of this fixture in general, ‘Over 3.0 Asian Total’ is a bet that also appears to be available at what I would call a rather user-friendly price.

Three of the four renewals of this fixture since August have contained at least four goals, with the pair sharing a total of 16 goals. That’s an average of 4.00 per game.

Sure, when they met here just over a week ago, just one goal went in, but that’s not because chances weren’t created. We saw loads of shots taken in that game, while we also saw high-quality chances, with the game containing a total of 3.33 expected goals.

A repeat of that sort of creative performance from the pair and we’ll likely see this game explode into life in terms of goals, as was the case when they met at Yankee Stadium last weekend.

Recap - Cincinnati vs NYCFC best bets

To recap, our Cincinnati vs NYCFC best bets are:

Cincinnati to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ -138 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Over 3.0 Asian Total @ +110 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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