Tennis Picks & Best Bets for ATP Finals Day Four

Yesterday marked our first bet at the ATP Finals, which are currently taking place in Turin, and an excellent first bet it was as Alexander Zverev duly obliged, getting the job done against Andrey Rublev in straight sets.

We now move on to our next angle of attack, which comes on Wednesday, when there are several matches taking place. Read on for our ATP Finals picks and best bets.

Wednesday’s ATP Tennis Picks

On Wednesday, the most eye-catching ATP Finals match from a betting point of view is the one between Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud.

Our Alexander Zverev vs Casper Ruud predictions and picks:

• Casper Ruud +1.5 Set Handicap @ +163 with BetMGM Sportsbook

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Alexander Zverev vs Casper Ruud betting odds

See below shows the implied probabilities behind the Moneyline odds for this match, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Alexander Zverev vs Casper Ruud picks

With the early lines the way that they are, I like the look of the Norwegian to put up a fight and avoid a straight-set defeat.

Casper Ruud +1.5 Set Handicap

After his relatively straightforward success against Andrey Rublev, Alexander Zverev is a huge favorite to get the job done against Casper Ruud. I completely agree that the big-serving German ought to be the favorite ahead of this one, but I’m not sure that he should be quite as strong in the market as he currently is.

Listen, I did side with Zverev to beat Rublev comfortably, which went well, but I’m changing my approach here, quite simply because that’s where the value lies.

After all, Casper Ruud also took to the Turin courts very well on Monday, beating world number three Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets, which is far from easy to do.

Is Ruud in the same sort of fast-court shape that Zverev is right now? No, but he will have re-filled with confidence yesterday, while he’s not exactly unfamiliar with pushing his German opponent.

Interestingly, Casper Ruud has lost none of his last three matches against Zverev in straight sets, a record that can hold the Norwegian in good stead here. When the pair last met on a hard court, in Paris back in 2023, Ruud came out on top. Moreover, Ruud certainly knows how to compete against the biggest and best on tour, often raising his game in such matches during 2024, as shown above.

Let’s face it, as strong as Zverev is right now, he’s never too far away from a blip, and even in recent times, we’ve seen him drop a set against an in-form Arthur Fils, while he lost to Lorenzo Musetti in Vienna not that long ago.

Is Zverev in great form and a worthy favorite here? Absolutely. Is he untouchable? Absolutely not. Don’t be surprised if Ruud, after his confidence-building win against Alcaraz, competes a little more than the early odds suggest, and at a price of +163, I’m betting on him to do just that by avoiding a straight-set defeat.

Recap - Wednesday’s ATP tennis best bets

Here are our best bets ahead of the next round of ATP Finals matches:

Casper Ruud +1.5 Set Handicap @ +163 with BetMGM Sportsbook

Before betting on the ATP Finals, we advise you to ensure that you're playing with a legal and legitimate sportsbook. To help with this, check out our guide to the best tennis betting sites.