At the time of writing, Wednesday’s tennis pick hasn’t concluded, but such is the fast-moving pace of these tournaments that we’re already on the hunt for the next value play.
On Thursday, more group matches take place at the ATP Finals, which is being played in the Italian city of Turin. Read on for our ATP Finals picks and best bets.
Thursday’s ATP Tennis Picks
Looking through a betting lens, I’m primarily interested in the match between Alex De Minaur and Taylor Fritz on Thursday. After both came unstuck last time out, which player will bounce back?
Sporting Post’s Taylor Fritz vs Alex De Minaur picks and best bets:
Over 2.5 Sets @ +133 with BetMGM Sportsbook
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Taylor Fritz vs Alex De Minaur betting odds
See below for the probabilities implied by the Moneyline odds for this match, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Fritz to Win | -227 | 69.4% | 67.1% | -2.3% |
De Minaur to Win | +190 | 34.5% | 33.9% | -0.6% |
Alex De Minaur vs Taylor Fritz picks
There isn’t a bet that supports either player that appeals looking at the early lines.
Over 2.5 Sets
What does appeal is a bet on this match going the distance. In other words a bet on ‘Over 2.5 Sets’, which at odds of +133, looks a little generously priced.
Listen, Taylor Fritz is a huge favorite here and given his recent efforts, coupled with the fact that Alex De Minaur isn’t at his best right now, that’s not overly surprising.
However, I’m of the opinion that the early market has this priced a little inaccurately, especially from a set point of view.
We know that Fritz and his serve are a good match for this fast courts in Turin, which is why the world number five got the job done against Daniil Medvedev in rather simple fashion during the first round of matches, but let’s face it he didn’t exactly put up any more of a fight against Sinner than De Minaur did, so maybe this one won’t be as straightforward as the early odds suggest.
While Fritz lost 6-4, 6-4 to Sinner during the second round of group matches, De Minaur lost 6-3, 6-4 to the Italian during the first round of matches.
The serve of the American is going to cause De Minaur problems, make no mistake about that, but it’s not as if Fritz is the most consistent player, while he’s far from error free, which is why he’s only won one of his last four hard-court matches, despite being in what is arguably some of the best form of his career.
What’s more, it’s worth considering the fact these two have a habit of going the distance in three-set matches. Three of their last best-of-three-sets encounters have entered the third set, while only one of their last five matches (on all surfaces) has been settled in the minimum number of sets. Such stats sit well with me, especially with +133 on offer.
Recap - Thursday’s ATP tennis best bets
As the ATP Finals continue, our best bets ahead of Thursday’s action are:
Over 2.5 Sets @ +133 with BetMGM Sportsbook
Before betting on the ATP Finals, we advise you to ensure that you're playing with a legal and legitimate sportsbook. To help with this, check out our guide to the best tennis betting sites.
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