Wednesday was a pleasing day in a tennis betting sense, with Taylor Fritz and Alex De Minaur playing out that three-setter, securing a nice +133 winner.
It’s now a case of moving on to Friday, when there will be a couple of new matches to tackle, including a particularly juicy showdown between the world number seven and the world number eight. Read on for our ATP tennis picks and best bets.
Friday’s ATP Tennis Picks
Ahead of Friday’s ATP Finals matches, I’m primarily interested in the clash between Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev, who are meeting for the first time this season.
Our Alexander Zverev vs Andrey Rublev predictions and picks:
Casper Ruud to Win @ +125 with DraftKings Sportsbook
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Casper Ruud vs Andrey Rublev betting odds
The table below shows the probabilities implied by the Moneyline odds for this match, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ruud to Win | +125 | 44.4% | 48.4% | +4.4% |
Rublev to Win | -149 | 59.9% | 51.6% | -8.3% |
Csper Ruud vs Andrey Rublev picks
Has the early market got it right here? For my money, not quite.
Casper Ruud to Win
Casper Ruud did go down in straight sets against Alexander Zverev last time out, but the bare result doesn’t quite tell the full story, with the Norwegian pushing very hard against the big-serving German, especially in the first set, forcing a tie-break.
OK, in the second set, Zverev showed how effective he can be on a rapid court that absolutely plays to his strengths, but does that mean that Ruud should be considered as much of an outsider as he is in the early betting? As the table above suggests, absolutely not.
For starters, Rublev put up much less of a fight against Zverev during the first round of matches in Turin, failing to force a tie-break in either set as he lost 6-4, 6-4. I’m not quite sure that effort suggests that he should be a -149 shot in the betting.
Last time out, the Russian did a little better against Alcaraz, though he still failed to pick up a set, which isn’t great given that Ruud beat Alcaraz in straight sets during the first round of group matches.
Not only has Casper Ruud adapted better to the courts in Turin, delivering better efforts than Rublev so far, but he has a positive recent hard-court record against the Russian competitor.
When the pair met on a hard court back in 2022, at the ATP Finals, Casper Ruud won in straight sets, while he won the year before that too. Consider this in conjunction with what we’ve seen from the pair this week already and at odds of +125, Ruud really does look like a great bet.
Recap - Friday’s ATP tennis best bets
To recap, Sporting Post’s best bet for Friday’s ATP Finals action is:
Casper Ruud to Win @ +125 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Before betting on the ATP Finals, we advise you to ensure that you're playing with a legal and legitimate sportsbook. To help with this, check out our guide to the best tennis betting sites.
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