Aston Villa vs Brentford Prediction, Picks & Best Bets

Having struggled to get going in the capital on Sunday afternoon, the Villans are back at home, where they’ll be looking to win for the first time in nine matches.

Visiting Villa Park will be a Brentford side looking to build on that thumping win last time out. Read on for our Aston Villa vs Brentford predictions and picks.

Aston Villa vs Brentford prediction

For the Aston Villa vs Brentford match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-1 draw based on our analysis.

The hosts are struggling to really impose themselves at present, scoring in none of their last two, so we probably shouldn’t expect them to explode into action here, while the visitors should fancy themselves to hold strong and get a positive result after their weekend efforts.

Our Aston Villa vs Brentford predictions and picks:

• Youri Tielemans to Get a Card @ +480 with BetMGM Sportsbook

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Aston Villa vs Brentford betting odds

The table below shows the probabilities implied by the Moneyline odds ahead of this match, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Aston Villa vs Brentford head-to-head statistics

The teams last met back in January, when they played out a thrilling 3-3 tie at Villa Park. Prior to that game, Villa won by two goals to one at Brentford Community Stadium.

Aston Villa vs Brentford preview

This game will take place on 04/12/2024 at Villa Park. Kick off will be at 15:15 EST.

I must admit, I thought that the Villans had a decent chance of getting a positive result at Stamford Bridge on Sunday. I was wrong. They folded rather tamely.

After that result, Wednesday’s hosts are now without a win in nine games in all competitions, meaning that things have quite quickly turned a little sour for Unai Emery’s men, who right now, look a shadow of the team that finished fourth last season.

It’s still relatively early days, of course, though it’s very difficult to see the men from Villa Park finishing anywhere near the top four this time around.

For the Bees, it’s been a mixed bag this season, but they once again made use of home advantage on Saturday, beating Leicester in hugely convincing fashion, scoring four goals, taking their home tally to a rather impressive 22 goals. In fact, no Premier League team has a better home record than Brentford.

Unfortunately, the Bees have been virtually unable to sting away from home, losing five out of six, scoring a measly total of just four goals. Therein lies the problem.

Aston Villa vs Brentford picks

To my value seeking eyes, there’s a rather juicy player prop available ahead of the action at Villa Park.

Youri Tielemans to Get a Card

At odds of +480 (BetMGM), I’m finding it hard to look beyond betting on home midfielder Youri Tielemans ‘to Get a Card’.

The Belgian midfielder has been Villa’s most prolific in terms of fouls in the league so far this season, conceding an average of 1.48 fouls per 90 minutes. At home, that average increased slightly to 1.58.

Moreover, Tielemans has made a habit of making quite a few cynical fouls this season, which has resulted in three yellows being shown in his direction. That’s in the league, in all competitions, the 27-year-old has been booked five times, averaging 0.23 cards per game.

If we say that Tielemans has been booked in 23% of his appearances, which he has, then odds of +480 just look a little large. Odds of +480 carry an implied probability of 17.2%, so by my calculations, we’d be getting a very nice +5.8% edge by taking the currently available odds. That’s a value move.

Recap - Aston Villa vs Brentford best bets

To recap, our Aston Villa vs Brentford best bets are as follows:

Youri Tielemans to Get a Card @ +480 with BetMGM Sportsbook

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