After a long and arduous campaign, full of twists and turns, it’s time for MLS Cup Final. Just two teams remain, and standing between them and glory is a single game.
On Saturday afternoon, LA Galaxy and New York Red Bulls will clash at Dignity Health Sports Park, where the hosts have been in red-hot form this season. Can the Red Bulls continue to upset the postseason odds? Read on for our LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls predictions and picks.
LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls prediction
For the LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls game prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-0 win for LA Galaxy based on our analysis.
The visitors have done a fine job of keeping things tight, before pouncing on the break during the play-offs, as they did in Orlando last time out, and they’ll likely dig deep to frustrate in Carson on Saturday, but when push comes to shove, the hosts should have enough offensive quality to make the difference when it matters most.
Under 3.0 Asian Total @ -115 with DraftKings Sportsbook
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LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls betting odds
See below for the probabilities implied by the Moneyline odds ahead of this match, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
LA Galaxy to Win | -125 | 55.6% | 56.7% | +1.1% |
NYRB to Win | +285 | 26.0% | 21.2% | -4.8% |
Tie | +300 | 25.0% | 23.1% | -1.9% |
LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls head-to-head statistics
This will be the first time that the pair have met since the start of the 2024 Major League Soccer campaign. The last time the pair met competitively was back in 2021, when the Galaxy won by three goals to two.
LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls preview
This game will take place on 07/12/2024 at Dignity Health Sports Park. Kick off will be at 13:00 local time.
For much of the campaign, the Los Angeles Galaxy looked strong, especially at home, where more often than not, they played like a team that would go deep into the postseason, and go deep they have.
On home soil, Greg Vanney’s men have looked virtually unbeatable at times, losing only one of their home games since the start of the season back in February. More impressively, they head into Saturday’s huge fixture having won each of their last ten games at Dignity Health Sports Park.
To make the final, the Galaxy had to get the better of a very defiant Seattle Sounders side, and it was certainly a tricky test, but it it was a test that they passed, thanks to a late winner from the ever reliable Dejan Joveljic, who by scoring and assisting 28 goals has enjoyed a fruitful campaign.
For the visitors, an appearance in the play-offs didn’t always look as likely as it did for Saturday’s hosts, especially as they struggled towards the end of the campaign, but they just about limped over the line, finishing seventh in the Eastern Conference, narrowly making the best-of-three series.
Since the postseason began, though, we’ve seen a different side to the Red Bulls, who in the last month or so have tightened up at the back, developing a knack of grinding out hard-fought wins. They’ll certainly have to fight hard to get the job done at Dignity Health Sports Park on Saturday.
LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls picks
Ahead of the biggest games of the Major League Soccer season, one bet in particular appeals.
Under 3.0 Asian Total
We know how strong the Galaxy can be at home, and we know that they’ve not often had problems unlocking teams, but let’s face it, with the pressure on last time out, against a defensively organized Sounders side, Vanney’s men delivered a more subdued effort, scoring just once, creating only 0.84 xG.
Moreover, it’s abundantly clear that the Red Bulls are not looking to blow anyone away in high-scoring fashion, and they’ll know that they’ll almost certainly get picked apart if they go to Dignity Health Sports Park and adopt a cavalier approach, so we can expect them to sit deep and look to frustrate. I’m not quite sure that the early lines reflect this accurately enough.
After all, only one goal was scored in each Conference Final last weekend, while less than three goals have been scored in each of the Red Bulls’ last three play-off games on the road, with them keeping a clean sheet in all three.
If we look at Galaxy’s last three home games in the play-offs and put them next to Red Bulls last three road games, we get five clean sheets out of six, which is not easy to ignore.
At the end of the day, it’s going to be a little cagey. The pressure is on for both and it may take a little while for the game to spark into life, especially if the visitors do look to defend first and foremost, which seems almost guaranteed, so don’t be surprised if we see a relative lack of goals. I certainly won’t be.
Recap - LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls best bets
Let’s recap our LA Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls best bets:
Under 3.0 Asian Total @ -115 with DraftKings Sportsbook
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