The Toronto Maple Leafs (16-8-2) head to PPG Paints Arena to face the Pittsburgh Penguins (11-13-4) on Saturday night in what promises to be an intriguing Eastern Conference clash.
The Maple Leafs enter the contest riding high with seven wins in their last ten games, showcasing a potent offense led by Mitch Marner and William Nylander who have combined for impressive offensive numbers this season.
Toronto's defensive unit has been particularly impressive, allowing just 2.52 goals per game with goaltender Joseph Woll posting a stellar .922 save percentage.
The Penguins, despite having stars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in their lineup, have struggled to find consistency this season, particularly on defense where they're allowing 3.78 goals per game.
Recent history favors the visitors, with Toronto winning their last three meetings against Pittsburgh, including a convincing 4-2 victory in their most recent matchup.
As these longtime rivals prepare to face off, both teams' contrasting defensive performances could prove to be the decisive factor in determining which side emerges victorious in this Metropolitan Division showdown.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs: who will win?
For tonight's Penguins vs Maple Leafs matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 65% chance of defeating the Pens.
Pittsburgh Penguins: 65% win probability
- Superior defensive performance (66 goals against vs Penguins' 108)
- Better overall record (16-8 vs Penguins' 11-13)
- Higher points total (34 points vs Penguins' 26)
Toronto Maple Leafs: 35% win probability
- Poor defensive record (108 goals against, worst in league)
- Lower win percentage (11 wins in 28 games)
- Negative goal differential (-29 compared to Leafs' +12)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs odds
| Pittsburgh Penguins | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| moneyline | +136 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) | -160 (via Caesars Sportsbook) |
Key stats
- 1The Pittsburgh Penguins have won 11 out of 28 matches this season.
- 2The Toronto Maple Leafs have won 16 out of 26 matches this season.
- 3With 26 points, the Pittsburgh Penguins holds the 10th position in the league standings.
- 4Toronto Maple Leafs's 34 points place them 4th in the rankings.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs form
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs head to head
Pittsburgh Penguins
17%
Toronto Maple Leafs
83%
Oct 12, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
4 : 2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Apr 8, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Dec 17, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs
7 : 0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Nov 26, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins
3 : 2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nov 27, 2022
Pittsburgh Penguins
1 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nov 16, 2022
Pittsburgh Penguins
2 : 5
Toronto Maple Leafs
