The Toronto Maple Leafs (29-16-2) welcome the Tampa Bay Lightning (25-16-3) to Scotiabank Arena on Monday night for what promises to be an electrifying Atlantic Division clash between two of the NHL's most potent offenses.
Both teams enter the contest riding impressive momentum, with Toronto seeking their third consecutive victory following dominant wins over New Jersey and Montreal, while Tampa Bay aims to extend their own streak after securing three wins in their last four outings.
The matchup features some of hockey's most dynamic scorers, with Tampa Bay's Nikita Kucherov leading the charge with 68 points and Toronto's Mitchell Marner close behind at 64 points, while both teams have demonstrated remarkable special teams efficiency this season.
Recent history favors the home team, with Toronto holding a 7-3-0 record in their last ten meetings against Tampa Bay, though both squads have shown similar defensive capabilities, allowing fewer than three goals per game.
The game could hinge on goaltending performance, as veteran netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy (.916 save percentage) squares off against Toronto's Joseph Woll, who has impressed with a 16-8-0 record this season.
With both teams jockeying for crucial positioning in the Atlantic Division standings and several key players potentially returning from injury, this matchup shapes up to be one of the most compelling NHL contests of the week.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: who will win?
For tonight's Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 63.67% chance of defeating the Lightning.
Toronto Maple Leafs: 63.67% win probability
- League-leading position in Atlantic Division (1st place with 60 points)
- Strong offensive output (147 goals scored in 47 games)
- Recent momentum (WWLLL - won 2 of last 5 games)
Tampa Bay Lightning: 36.33% win probability
- Lower standing position (3rd in Atlantic Division with 53 points)
- Fewer games played (44 GP vs Leafs' 47 GP)
- Inconsistent recent form (WWLWL - alternating wins and losses)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning odds
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Tampa Bay Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| moneyline | -110 (via BetMGM Sportsbook) | -105 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) |
Key stats
- 1The Toronto Maple Leafs have won 29 out of 47 matches this season.
- 2The Tampa Bay Lightning have won 25 out of 44 matches this season.
- 3With 60 points, the Toronto Maple Leafs holds the 2nd position in the league standings.
- 4Tampa Bay Lightning's 53 points place them 6th in the rankings.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning form
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning head to head
Toronto Maple Leafs
67%
Tampa Bay Lightning
33%
Dec 1, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
3 : 5
Toronto Maple Leafs
Oct 21, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
5 : 2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Apr 17, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
6 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Apr 3, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
1 : 4
Tampa Bay Lightning
Nov 7, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs
6 : 5
Tampa Bay Lightning
Oct 21, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning
3 : 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
