The Tampa Bay Lightning (28-20-4) welcome the Ottawa Senators (29-21-4) to Amalie Arena on Thursday night for their second consecutive meeting, following Tampa Bay's narrow 4-3 victory just two days ago.
The Lightning, currently holding the second Eastern Conference wild-card spot, trail the third-place Senators by just two points in a tight Atlantic Division race, making this matchup particularly significant for both teams' playoff aspirations.
Tampa Bay enters the contest showcasing the NHL's third-best offense, averaging 3.5 goals per game, while the Senators have impressed defensively with the seventh-best goals-against average at 2.7.
The return of Ottawa's starting goaltender Linus Ullmark from injury adds another layer of intrigue to this matchup, though he'll face a stern test against Tampa Bay's potent power play, which ranks fifth in the league at 26.3%.
The Lightning have dominated recent meetings on home ice, winning six of their last eight games against Ottawa at Amalie Arena, while the Senators look to bounce back after having their five-game winning streak snapped in Tuesday's encounter.
With key players like Tampa Bay's Brayden Point (28 goals) and Ottawa's Tim Stutzle (54 points) leading their respective offenses, this Atlantic Division clash promises to deliver another compelling chapter in this evolving rivalry.
Hockey fans won't want to miss this crucial matchup between two teams separated by just two points in the standings, as both the Lightning and Senators vie for valuable playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Ottawa Senators: who will win?
For tonight's Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 56% chance of defeating the Sens.
Tampa Bay Lightning: 56% win probability
- Superior offensive output (181 goals for, ranking among league's best)
- Better goal differential (+35 compared to Ottawa's +10)
- Strong home ice advantage (28-20-4 overall record)
Ottawa Senators: 44% win probability
- Lower scoring efficiency (156 goals scored vs Tampa's 181)
- Weaker defensive record (146 goals against vs Tampa's 146 in fewer games)
- Lower points percentage (62 points in 54 games vs Tampa's 60 in 52 games)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Ottawa Senators odds
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Ottawa Senators | |
|---|---|---|
| moneyline | -160 (via BetMGM Sportsbook) | +136 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) |
Key stats
- 1The Tampa Bay Lightning have won 28 out of 52 matches this season.
- 2The Ottawa Senators have won 29 out of 54 matches this season.
- 3With 60 points, the Tampa Bay Lightning holds the 8th position in the league standings.
- 4Ottawa Senators's 62 points place them 6th in the rankings.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Ottawa Senators form
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Ottawa Senators head to head
Tampa Bay Lightning
33%
Ottawa Senators
67%
Feb 5, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
4 : 3
Ottawa Senators
Oct 19, 2024
Ottawa Senators
5 : 4
Tampa Bay Lightning
Apr 11, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 3
Ottawa Senators
Feb 20, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 4
Ottawa Senators
Nov 4, 2023
Ottawa Senators
4 : 6
Tampa Bay Lightning
Oct 15, 2023
Ottawa Senators
5 : 2
Tampa Bay Lightning
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