The NHL's top two scoring teams collide as the Tampa Bay Lightning bring their seven-game winning streak to Capital One Arena for a crucial Eastern Conference matchup against the Metropolitan Division-leading Washington Capitals.

The Lightning, powered by Nikita Kucherov's 27 goals and Jake Guentzel's recent contributions, have been showcasing their offensive prowess while ranking second in the league with 3.57 goals per game.

Washington, despite dropping their last two games, maintains a commanding 12-point lead in their division while leading the NHL in scoring with 3.63 goals per contest.

Both teams have demonstrated exceptional defensive capabilities this season, with Tampa Bay and Washington ranking sixth and fourth respectively in goals against average.

The historical matchup between these powerhouses remains remarkably close, with the Capitals holding a slight 5-4-1 edge in their last ten meetings, including a 5-4 victory in their most recent encounter last November.

With elite goaltenders Andrei Vasilevskiy and Logan Thompson expected to face off, this afternoon's contest promises to deliver an intense battle between two of the Eastern Conference's most formidable teams.

Washington Capitals vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: who will win?

For today's Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Caps a 57% chance of defeating the Bolts.

Washington Capitals: 57% win probability

  • League-leading offense (214 goals for, highest in Eastern Conference)
  • Strong overall record (38-13, best win-loss ratio in East)
  • Excellent goal differential (+60, among the best in the league)

Tampa Bay Lightning: 43% win probability

  • Lower points total (72 points vs Capitals' 84 despite similar games played)
  • Inferior win record (34 wins vs Capitals' 38)
  • Less consistent scoring (208 goals for vs Capitals' 214)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.

Washington Capitals vs. Tampa Bay Lightning odds

Here are the latest odds for this NHL matchup as the Washington Capitals host the Tampa Bay Lightning at home on Saturday, March 01.

Washington CapitalsTampa Bay Lightning
HOME_AWAY-110 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)-110 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Washington Capitals vs. Tampa Bay Lightning preview

A high-stakes Eastern Conference showdown is set to unfold at Capital One Arena as the red-hot Tampa Bay Lightning face off against the Metropolitan Division-leading Washington Capitals in what promises to be an electrifying Saturday afternoon matchup.

The Lightning enter the contest riding an impressive seven-game winning streak, most recently securing a 3-0 shutout victory against Calgary, with Andrei Vasilevskiy demonstrating his elite form between the pipes.

Washington, despite holding a commanding 12-point lead in their division, looks to bounce back from two consecutive losses, including a disappointing 5-2 defeat to St. Louis.

This matchup features the NHL's top two scoring offenses, with Washington leading the league at 3.63 goals per game and Tampa Bay close behind at 3.57, setting the stage for what could be an offensive spectacle.

The Capitals have history on their side with a slight 5-4-1 edge in their last ten meetings, including a 5-4 victory in their most recent encounter last November.

Key players to watch include Tampa Bay's dynamic duo of Nikita Kucherov, who continues to light up the scoreboard, and Brandon Hagel, who's approaching the 30-goal mark this season.

For Washington, the stellar goaltending of Logan Thompson has been a revelation, posting an impressive 25-3-5 record with a 2.28 GAA and .919 save percentage.

The home-ice advantage could prove crucial, as the Capitals boast a strong 18-6-6 record at Capital One Arena, while the Lightning have struggled on the road with a 13-13-6 mark.

With both teams ranking in the top six in goals against and featuring elite goaltending, this matchup might prove to be more defensive than their offensive statistics suggest, potentially setting up a chess match between two of the East's powerhouses.

Key stats

  • 1
    Capitals lead Eastern Conference with 84 points in 59 games, while Lightning sit 4th with 72 points in 58 games
  • 2
    Capitals have superior goal difference (+60) compared to Lightning's (+53)
  • 3
    Lightning enter with perfect WWWWW recent form, while Capitals come in with mixed LLWWL form
  • 4
    Capitals boast league-leading 214 goals scored, with Lightning close behind at 208 goals

Washington Capitals vs. Tampa Bay Lightning form

Washington Capitals
Washington Capitals
Latest matches
L
L
W
W
L
Victories
2/5 (40%)
Draws
0/5 (0%)
Defeats
3/5 (60%)
Feb 28, 2025
St. Louis Blues5:2Washington Capitals
Feb 26, 2025
Calgary Flames3:1Washington Capitals
Feb 23, 2025
Edmonton Oilers3:7Washington Capitals
Feb 22, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins3:8Washington Capitals
Feb 9, 2025
Utah Hockey Club5:4Washington Capitals
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning
Latest matches
W
W
W
W
W
Victories
5/5 (100%)
Draws
0/5 (0%)
Defeats
0/5 (0%)
Feb 28, 2025
Calgary Flames0:3Tampa Bay Lightning
Feb 26, 2025
Edmonton Oilers1:4Tampa Bay Lightning
Feb 23, 2025
Seattle Kraken1:4Tampa Bay Lightning
Feb 9, 2025
Montreal Canadiens3:5Tampa Bay Lightning
Feb 8, 2025
Detroit Red Wings3:6Tampa Bay Lightning

Washington Capitals vs. Tampa Bay Lightning head to head

Washington Capitals

50%

Tampa Bay Lightning

50%

Nov 28, 2024

Tampa Bay Lightning

4 : 5

Washington Capitals

Oct 26, 2024

Tampa Bay Lightning

3 : 0

Washington Capitals

Apr 13, 2024

Washington Capitals

4 : 2

Tampa Bay Lightning

Feb 23, 2024

Tampa Bay Lightning

3 : 5

Washington Capitals

Dec 24, 2023

Washington Capitals

1 : 2

Tampa Bay Lightning

Mar 30, 2023

Tampa Bay Lightning

5 : 1

Washington Capitals