The Miami Heat welcome the Charlotte Hornets to the Kaseya Center on Monday night with both teams desperate to find their rhythm after recent setbacks.

While the Heat have dropped their last three games and are playing without several key pieces - including questionable starters Haywood Highsmith, Alec Burks, and Duncan Robinson - they'll take comfort in their six-game winning streak against these Hornets.

The struggling Hornets, fresh off snapping a nine-game losing skid with an unlikely comeback against the Nets, face a tough test as they look to build momentum against a Heat squad that's historically dominated this Southeast Division matchup at home.

Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets matchup, our predictive model gives the Heat a 74% chance of defeating the Hornets.

Miami Heat: 74% win probability

  • Better defensive efficiency (6,964 points against compared to Hornets' 7,117)
  • Higher win percentage (29 wins in 63 games vs Hornets' 15 wins in 63 games)
  • Superior scoring output (6,935 points scored vs Hornets' 6,637 points)

Charlotte Hornets: 26% win probability

  • Poor offensive production (lowest scoring team in Southeast Division with 6,637 points)
  • Defensive struggles (allowing 7,117 points, second-worst in division)
  • Road game disadvantage (15-48 overall record, indicating particular struggles away from home)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets odds

Here are the latest odds for this NBA matchup as the Miami Heat host the Charlotte Hornets at home on Monday, March 10.

Miami HeatCharlotte Hornets
Moneyline-405 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)+340 (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets preview

The Miami Heat are looking to snap out of their recent funk as they host the Charlotte Hornets at the Kaseya Center, with both teams desperate to turn their fortunes around.

Miami's recent slide has been particularly concerning, dropping four of their last five games including a tough loss to the Bulls where they squandered a 17-point lead despite strong performances from Wiggins and Adebayo, who each put up 22 points.

The Hornets come into this one with a glimmer of hope after breaking their nine-game losing streak with a gutsy comeback win against the Nets, where Miles Bridges showed his worth with a stellar 26-point, 12-rebound performance.

Keep your eyes on Bam Adebayo, who's been Miami's bright spot lately - he's coming off a monster 34-point game against the Cavs and seems to be hitting his stride at the right time.

The Heat's home court has been a house of horrors for Charlotte, with Miami winning their last six matchups against the Hornets - though their current three-game skid might give the visitors a chance to flip the script.

With key Heat players Haywood Highsmith, Alec Burks, and Duncan Robinson listed as questionable, Charlotte might find some extra breathing room to work with, though they'll need to improve on their league-worst offense that's averaging just 105.2 points per game.

The contrast in defensive capabilities could be the deciding factor, with Miami's seventh-ranked defense going up against a Hornets squad that's struggled to find consistency on both ends of the floor.

This Southeast Division clash has all the makings of an interesting matchup, especially considering how both teams are hungry to prove themselves after their recent struggles.

Key stats

  • 1
    Miami Heat sits 9th in Eastern Conference with 29-34 record while Hornets languish at 14th with 15-48
  • 2
    Hornets carry a concerning WLLLL recent form compared to Heat's LLLWL streak
  • 3
    Heat maintains better defensive efficiency with 6964 goals against vs Hornets' 7117
  • 4
    Charlotte's -480 goal differential (6637 for, 7117 against) ranks significantly worse than Miami's -29 differential

Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets form

Miami Heat
Miami Heat
Latest matches
L
L
L
W
L
Victories
1/5 (20%)
Draws
0/5 (0%)
Defeats
4/5 (80%)
Mar 9, 2025
Chicago Bulls114:109Miami Heat
Mar 8, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves106:104Miami Heat
Mar 6, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers112:107Miami Heat
Mar 4, 2025
Washington Wizards90:106Miami Heat
Mar 2, 2025
New York Knicks116:112Miami Heat
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets
Latest matches
L
W
L
L
L
Victories
1/5 (20%)
Draws
0/5 (0%)
Defeats
4/5 (80%)
Mar 8, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers118:117Charlotte Hornets
Mar 8, 2025
Brooklyn Nets102:105Charlotte Hornets
Mar 6, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves125:110Charlotte Hornets
Mar 4, 2025
Golden State Warriors119:101Charlotte Hornets
Mar 1, 2025
Washington Wizards113:100Charlotte Hornets

Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets head to head

Miami Heat

60%

Charlotte Hornets

40%

Mar 10, 2025

Miami Heat

0 : 0

Charlotte Hornets

Nov 28, 2024

Charlotte Hornets

94 : 98

Miami Heat

Oct 26, 2024

Charlotte Hornets

106 : 114

Miami Heat

Oct 8, 2024

Charlotte Hornets

111 : 108

Miami Heat

Jan 14, 2024

Miami Heat

104 : 87

Charlotte Hornets

Dec 14, 2023

Miami Heat

115 : 104

Charlotte Hornets