Fresh off a dominant 127-103 victory over Denver, the red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder aim to extend their remarkable run that has seen them win nine of their last ten games, with MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander coming off a 40-point masterclass.
The defending champion Nuggets, who've struggled to find consistency on the road lately, will need more from Nikola Jokic, who's been relatively quiet with under 25 points in four of his last five outings and has averaged just 21 points in three meetings against OKC this season.
The stage is set for another Northwest Division showdown as the Oklahoma City Thunder welcome the Denver Nuggets to Paycom Center, where the home team's league-leading defense will look to stifle the away team's third-ranked offense once again.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder an 80% chance of defeating the Nuggets.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 80% win probability
- League-leading defense (Only 6,821 goals against, best in Western Conference)
- Dominant recent form (Perfect WWWWW in last 5 games)
- Superior win-loss record (53-11, best in Western Conference)
Denver Nuggets: 20% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performance (LWWLW in last 5 games)
- Defensive struggles (7,454 goals against, significantly higher than Thunder)
- Road game disadvantage (Playing against #1 seed with 53-11 record)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets odds
Here are the latest odds for this NBA matchup as the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets at home on Monday, March 10.
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Denver Nuggets | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -350 (via BetMGM Sportsbook) | +300 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) |
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets preview
The red-hot Thunder welcome the Nuggets back to Paycom Center for the second night of their back-to-back, fresh off handing Denver a 24-point drubbing on Sunday.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's been absolutely torching defenses lately, dropping 40 points in Sunday's matchup, while the Joker's been a bit quieter than usual, putting up below-25 points in four of his last five games.
Denver's defense has hit a rough patch on the road, and they'll need to figure out how to contain OKC's high-powered offense that's been crushing teams by 8+ points in nearly all their recent wins.
Keep an eye on Jalen Williams, who's been on a tear with five straight 20+ point games despite nursing a wrist injury, while Denver's Christian Braun has emerged as an unexpected spark with 15+ points in his last five outings.
The Thunder's lockdown perimeter defense could be the difference-maker here - they're tops in the league at defending the three, and they just held Denver to a measly 30% from deep on Sunday.
With OKC sitting pretty atop the conference and Denver trying to hold onto that third seed, this divisional clash has all the makings of another defensive showcase from the Thunder's league-leading unit.
Key stats
- 1Thunder lead Western Conference with 53 wins vs Nuggets' 41 wins in 3rd place
- 2Thunder boast best goal differential in West (+831) while Nuggets sit at +301
- 3Thunder riding 5-game win streak (WWWWW) vs Nuggets' mixed form (LWWLW)
- 4Thunder's 11 losses vs Nuggets' 23 losses shows major gap in consistency
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets form
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets head to head
Oklahoma City Thunder
33%
Denver Nuggets
67%
Mar 9, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
127 : 103
Denver Nuggets
Nov 7, 2024
Denver Nuggets
124 : 122
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oct 25, 2024
Denver Nuggets
87 : 102
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oct 16, 2024
Denver Nuggets
94 : 124
Oklahoma City Thunder
Feb 1, 2024
Oklahoma City Thunder
105 : 100
Denver Nuggets
Dec 30, 2023
Denver Nuggets
93 : 119
Oklahoma City Thunder
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