NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 03/11/2025

The Bucks enter this crucial Eastern Conference clash with momentum on their side, winning 8 of their last 11 games and showing particular strength on the road with 4 victories in their last 5 away games. Their head-to-head dominance over Indiana this season can't be ignored, already holding a 2-0 series lead.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been absolutely crushing it against the Pacers, putting up video game numbers with 37.4 points, 13 boards, and 7.6 assists over their last 5 meetings. With the 4th seed up for grabs, expect the Greek Freak to come out aggressive from the jump.

Indiana's struggling with some serious issues right now. They're on a three-game skid and got pushed around by the Bulls just last night. Their rebounding woes are particularly concerning - they're letting opponents grab 57.3 boards per game during this losing streak, which is worse than even the league-worst Wizards.

The potential absence of Tyrese Haliburton looms large for the Pacers. He's missed three straight with a hip issue, and while there's a chance he suits up, playing back-to-back games right after an injury isn't ideal. His 20 points and 10 assists per game production isn't easily replaced.

Milwaukee's recent shooting slump from beyond the arc should correct itself against Indiana's defense, which has been generous all season. Kyle Kuzma's stepped up nicely to fill Bobby Portis's minutes, giving the Bucks another scoring threat to complement Giannis.

Giannis has been absolutely feasting against Indiana, evidenced by his ridiculous 37.4 point average over their last five matchups. That includes a monster 64-point explosion, showing just how comfortable he feels against this defense.

The Pacers' interior defense has shown significant vulnerabilities lately, especially on the glass. Their recent struggles in rebounding suggest they're having issues with physical play inside - exactly where Giannis makes his living.

With playoff positioning on the line, expect Milwaukee to lean heavily on their superstar. The Bucks have been riding Giannis hard in important games, and this matchup against a direct Eastern Conference competitor definitely qualifies.

Indiana's fatigue factor from playing last night could lead to more defensive breakdowns as the game progresses. Giannis tends to get stronger as games wear on, often dominating in transition against tired defenders.

The Greek Freak's recent form suggests he's hitting his stride at the right time. His aggressive mindset and the Pacers' defensive issues create a perfect storm for another big scoring night.

Both teams play at a breakneck pace, with the Pacers leading the league in possessions per game. Their recent matchups have consistently produced high-scoring affairs, including a 120-112 shootout in their last meeting.

Milwaukee's three-point shooting is due for positive regression after two cold games against Orlando and Cleveland. The Pacers' defense typically provides plenty of open looks from deep, which should help the Bucks find their rhythm.

Even with Haliburton potentially sidelined, Indiana hasn't slowed down their uptempo style. They're still pushing the pace and getting up plenty of shots, they're just not as efficient without their floor general.

The back-to-back situation for Indiana might actually help the over. Tired legs often lead to defensive lapses and easier transition opportunities, especially against a Bucks team that loves to run with Giannis.

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating, and neither has shown much improvement on that end lately. The offensive firepower on both sides, combined with questionable defense, sets up well for a high-scoring affair.