The surging Tampa Bay Lightning bring their high-octane offense to Philadelphia, where Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel's combined 163 points this season will test a Flyers defense that's leaked 22 goals in their last five games.

While the Lightning's Andrei Vasilevskiy has been a wall in net with a .919 save percentage, the Flyers' Samuel Ersson faces an uphill battle to contain Tampa's attack that's averaging 3.50 goals per game.

The Wells Fargo Center crowd will watch their struggling Flyers, losers of five straight, try to snap out of their offensive funk against a Lightning squad that's won seven of their last ten matchups.

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 62.5% chance of defeating the Flyers.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 62.5% win probability

  • Elite offensive production (225 goals scored, 3rd highest in league)
  • Strong goal differential (+52, top 5 in league)
  • Consistent winning record (37 wins in 64 games, 0.578 win percentage)

Philadelphia Flyers: 37.5% win probability

  • Poor recent form (5 straight losses - LLLLL)
  • Defensive struggles (224 goals against, bottom third in league)
  • Negative goal differential (-36, indicating consistent scoring issues)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning odds

Here are the latest odds for the NHL matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the home team Philadelphia Flyers, set to face off on Thursday, March 13.

Philadelphia FlyersTampa Bay Lightning
Moneyline+145 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)-156 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning preview

The red-hot Tampa Bay Lightning roll into Wells Fargo Center looking to extend their impressive run against a Flyers team that's hit rock bottom.

Tampa's dynamic duo of Kucherov and Hagel has been lighting up scoreboards, combining for a whopping 163 points this season, while the Flyers' offense has gone ice-cold with just five goals in their last four games.

The Bolts' brick wall Andrei Vasilevskiy has been in stellar form, boasting a .919 save percentage and making game-changing saves that've kept Tampa in the Atlantic Division's top three.

Philly's defensive woes continue to mount - they've leaked 22 goals in their last five games, and their netminder Samuel Ersson's struggles aren't helping matters.

While the Flyers' young gun Matvei Michkov has shown flashes of brilliance alongside veteran Travis Konecny, they're swimming against the tide against Tampa's well-oiled machine.

Victor Hedman's been quarterbacking Tampa's offense from the blue line with 50 points, making him a constant threat the Flyers' shaky defense will need to contain.

This cross-division matchup at the Wells Fargo Center has all the makings of a classic David vs. Goliath story - though David's slingshot might be running low on ammo this time around.

Key stats

  • 1
    Tampa Bay sits 5th in Eastern Conference with 78 points while Flyers struggle in 14th with 62 points - a 16-point gap
  • 2
    Lightning boast superior goal difference (+52) compared to Flyers (-36), scoring 225 goals vs Philadelphia's 188
  • 3
    Flyers enter match on 5-game losing streak (LLLLL) while Tampa shows mixed form (LLWWL)
  • 4
    Tampa Bay averages 3.52 goals per game vs Philadelphia's 2.85, suggesting stronger offensive capabilities

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning form

Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Latest matches
L
L
L
L
L
Victories
0/5 (0%)
Draws
0/5 (0%)
Defeats
5/5 (100%)
Mar 11, 2025
Ottawa Senators5:2Philadelphia Flyers
Mar 9, 2025
New Jersey Devils3:1Philadelphia Flyers
Mar 8, 2025
Seattle Kraken4:1Philadelphia Flyers
Mar 7, 2025
Winnipeg Jets4:1Philadelphia Flyers
Mar 5, 2025
Calgary Flames6:3Philadelphia Flyers
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning
Latest matches
L
L
W
W
L
Victories
2/5 (40%)
Draws
0/5 (0%)
Defeats
3/5 (60%)
Mar 11, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes4:1Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 8, 2025
Boston Bruins4:0Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 7, 2025
Buffalo Sabres5:6Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 5, 2025
Columbus Blue Jackets2:6Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 4, 2025
Florida Panthers2:1Tampa Bay Lightning

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning head to head

Philadelphia Flyers

33%

Tampa Bay Lightning

67%

Nov 8, 2024

Tampa Bay Lightning

1 : 2

Philadelphia Flyers

Mar 10, 2024

Tampa Bay Lightning

7 : 0

Philadelphia Flyers

Feb 28, 2024

Philadelphia Flyers

6 : 2

Tampa Bay Lightning

Jan 24, 2024

Philadelphia Flyers

3 : 6

Tampa Bay Lightning

Mar 8, 2023

Tampa Bay Lightning

5 : 2

Philadelphia Flyers

Dec 2, 2022

Philadelphia Flyers

1 : 4

Tampa Bay Lightning