The struggling Miami Heat face a daunting challenge as they welcome the Eastern Conference powerhouse Boston Celtics to the Kaseya Center, with Tyler Herro's recent 31-point performance offering a rare bright spot amid their five-game losing skid.

While the Celtics enter with question marks around their star-studded lineup - as Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kristaps Porzingis are listed as questionable - they've shown remarkable depth and resilience in winning 15 of their last 19 games.

The Heat (29-36) will need to find answers for their offensive woes if they hope to upset the Celtics (47-19) in what promises to be an intense Friday night showdown at the Kaseya Center.

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics matchup, our predictive model gives the Celtics a 74.33% chance of defeating the Heat.

Boston Celtics: 74.33% win probability

  • Elite offensive output (7,711 points scored, 2nd highest in Eastern Conference)
  • Strong defensive efficiency (7,151 points against, 3rd best in conference)
  • Consistent winning record (47-19, .712 win percentage)

Miami Heat: 25.67% win probability

  • Struggling offense (7,141 points scored, 3rd lowest in Eastern Conference)
  • Poor recent form (5 consecutive losses - LLLLL)
  • Below .500 record (29-36, currently 9th in Eastern Conference)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics odds

Here are the latest odds for this NBA matchup as the Boston Celtics head to Miami to face the home team Heat on Friday, March 14.

Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Moneyline+270 (via Caesars Sportsbook)-325 (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics preview

The red-hot Celtics roll into Miami's Kaseya Center looking to bounce back from their recent stumble against the Thunder, while the Heat are desperate to snap out of their worst slump this season.

Boston's offense has been clicking lately, winning 15 of their last 19 games, with Sam Hauser's breakout 33-point performance against Utah showing their impressive depth beyond their stars.

The Heat's struggles are real - they've dropped six of their last seven, and Tyler Herro's 31-point effort against the Clippers wasn't enough to prevent another disappointing home loss.

There's drama in the injury department, with Boston's entire core of Tatum, Brown, White, and Porzingis listed as questionable, which could throw a massive wrench in their gameplan.

Miami's home court hasn't provided much advantage lately, especially against Atlantic Division powerhouses, but they'll need to find answers quick with Herro and Adebayo carrying most of the offensive load.

The matchup history at Kaseya Center has typically favored low-scoring affairs, with both teams' recent meetings consistently staying under the total points line.

Keep an eye on Bam Adebayo, who's coming off a solid 23-point, 14-rebound performance and will need to dominate the paint if Miami hopes to exploit Boston's potentially depleted roster.

Despite their injury concerns, the Celtics' league-leading defense (allowing just 108.2 points per game) should give them the edge against a Heat offense that's gone ice-cold.

Key stats

  • 1
    Boston Celtics sit 2nd in East with 47 wins while Miami Heat struggle in 9th with 29 wins
  • 2
    Heat on concerning 5-game losing streak (LLLLL) vs Celtics' strong recent form (LWWWW)
  • 3
    Celtics boast superior scoring with 7711 points for vs Heat's 7141 points this season
  • 4
    Miami's defense allows 7188 points against compared to Boston's tighter 7151 points against

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics form

Miami Heat
Miami Heat
Latest matches
L
L
L
L
L
Victories
0/5 (0%)
Draws
0/5 (0%)
Defeats
5/5 (100%)
Mar 13, 2025
Los Angeles Clippers119:104Miami Heat
Mar 10, 2025
Charlotte Bobcats105:102Miami Heat
Mar 9, 2025
Chicago Bulls114:109Miami Heat
Mar 8, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves106:104Miami Heat
Mar 6, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers112:107Miami Heat
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics
Latest matches
L
W
W
W
W
Victories
4/5 (80%)
Draws
0/5 (0%)
Defeats
1/5 (20%)
Mar 12, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder118:112Boston Celtics
Mar 10, 2025
Utah Jazz108:114Boston Celtics
Mar 9, 2025
Los Angeles Lakers101:111Boston Celtics
Mar 7, 2025
Philadelphia 76ers105:123Boston Celtics
Mar 6, 2025
Portland Trail Blazers118:128Boston Celtics

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics head to head

Miami Heat

100%

Boston Celtics

0%

Mar 14, 2025

Miami Heat

0 : 0

Boston Celtics

Feb 11, 2025

Miami Heat

85 : 103

Boston Celtics

Dec 3, 2024

Boston Celtics

108 : 89

Miami Heat

Jul 13, 2024

Boston Celtics

114 : 119

Miami Heat

May 1, 2024

Boston Celtics

118 : 84

Miami Heat

Apr 29, 2024

Miami Heat

88 : 102

Boston Celtics