The NBA playoffs heat up tonight with a packed 10-game slate, headlined by several intriguing matchups including the Pacers vs. 76ers and Lakers vs. Nuggets showdowns.
Our advanced predictive analytics model has identified several high-value NBA best bets for Friday's action, with the Mavericks +11.5 against the Rockets showing a particularly promising 3.8% edge.
From underdog moneyline plays to calculated spread bets, today's NBA picks feature multiple opportunities where the numbers suggest significant betting value.
NBA best bets
Game | Time | Pick |
---|---|---|
![]() ![]() | 7:00 PM | 76ers +11.5 (-108)|76ers ML (+475) |
![]() ![]() | 8:00 PM | Mavericks +11.5 (-110) |
76ers vs. Pacers

Friday, Mar 14
7:00 PM
Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA

The 76ers have been showing remarkable resilience despite their underdog status, making this spread particularly attractive. Their defensive adjustments in recent games suggest they can keep things competitive against a high-scoring Pacers outfit.
While Indiana's offense has been clicking, their tendency to let teams hang around in games makes this double-digit spread feel a bit inflated. The Sixers' bench has stepped up lately, providing crucial scoring support when the starters need rest.
Historical matchups between these teams have typically been closer affairs, with the 76ers' physical style of play often disrupting the Pacers' preferred fast-paced approach. Even in losses, Philly has managed to keep games within striking distance.
The return of key rotation players for Philadelphia adds depth that wasn't factored into this line. Their improved ball movement and spacing should create enough offensive opportunities to stay within this margin.
Though the Pacers are favored at home, the 11.5-point spread offers too much value to pass up. The Sixers' defensive discipline and deliberate pace should help control the game's tempo and keep things closer than the odds suggest.
While taking the 76ers straight up is definitely a bold play, there's compelling value at these odds that can't be ignored. Philadelphia has shown they can compete with anyone when executing their gameplan effectively.
The Sixers' defensive scheme has been particularly effective against teams that rely heavily on perimeter scoring, which matches up well against Indiana's style. Their ability to slow the game down and force half-court sets could frustrate the Pacers.
Recent improvements in Philadelphia's offensive execution, particularly in late-game situations, make them dangerous as a heavy underdog. Their experienced roster knows how to handle pressure situations on the road.
The team's improved health status and deeper rotation give them multiple lineup options to counter whatever the Pacers throw at them. Their physical style of play tends to wear down opponents as games progress.
At these odds, the moneyline presents an opportunity worth taking. The Sixers have pulled off similar upsets this season, and their matchup advantages in key areas make this a calculated risk with significant potential return.
Rockets vs. Mavericks

Friday, Mar 14
8:00 PM
Toyota Center (Houston), Houston, TX

Dallas enters this matchup as a surprising double-digit underdog, but their offensive firepower suggests this spread is overly generous. The Mavs have consistently performed well against the spread when getting double digits this season.
The Rockets' recent home form has been strong, but they've struggled to put away teams by large margins. Dallas's ability to create mismatches and their improved defensive rotations make them dangerous even on the road.
Recent head-to-head meetings between these Texas rivals have been competitive affairs, with neither team typically dominating. The Mavericks' three-point shooting provides a constant threat to keep games close or spark comebacks.
While Houston's young core is impressive, they've shown vulnerability against veteran teams that can control tempo and exploit defensive lapses. The Mavs fit this profile perfectly with their experienced lineup.
The rivalry factor can't be ignored here - these teams know each other well, and pride alone should keep Dallas engaged throughout. Their ability to score in bunches makes this spread particularly appealing.