The surging Houston Rockets, riding a four-game winning streak and boasting a formidable 23-10 home record, welcome their in-state rivals Dallas Mavericks to the Toyota Center for what promises to be an intriguing Western Conference clash.

While Houston's defense ranks among the league's elite and they have six active double-digit scorers led by Jalen Green's 21.1 points per game, the Mavericks enter this Texas showdown severely short-handed - missing both Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis among a concerning list of eight injured players.

The Rockets, leading the season series 2-1, aim to clinch the rivalry matchup against a Mavs squad that's managed just two wins in their last ten games, setting up what could be a defining moment in this home team versus away team battle.

Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks matchup, our predictive model gives the Rockets a 78% chance of defeating the Mavs.

Houston Rockets: 78% win probability

  • Superior defensive efficiency (7,184 points against compared to Mavs' 7,681)
  • Better recent form (WWWWL vs Mavs' LWLLL)
  • Higher league position (5th vs 10th in Western Conference)

Dallas Mavericks: 22% win probability

  • Poor defensive record (7,681 points against, 3rd worst in conference)
  • Struggling recent form (Lost 4 of last 5 games)
  • Road game disadvantage (33-34 overall record shows road struggles)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks odds

Here are the latest odds for this NBA matchup as the Dallas Mavericks head to Houston to face the home team Rockets on Friday, March 14.

Houston RocketsDallas Mavericks
Moneyline-600 (via Caesars Sportsbook)+460 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks preview

The Toyota Center is set for a heated Texas showdown as the surging Houston Rockets look to clinch their season series against a depleted Dallas Mavericks squad.

Houston's been turning heads lately, riding a four-game win streak and showcasing one of the league's most balanced attacks with six players hitting double figures, led by Jalen Green's explosive 21.1 points per game.

The Mavs are struggling to find their footing since the Doncic trade, with Klay Thompson's 14.5 ppg not quite filling the superstar-sized hole in their offense.

Things aren't looking much brighter for Dallas with both Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis sidelined, while their frontcourt's been hit hard by the injury bug.

The Rockets' defensive prowess could be the difference-maker here - they're top-10 in nearly every defensive category and have been absolutely suffocating opponents at home, where they've built an impressive 23-10 record.

Keep an eye on Alperen Sengun in the paint - he's poised to have a field day against Dallas's banged-up interior defense.

Spencer Dinwiddie's coming off a hot 28-point performance against the Spurs, but he'll have his work cut out against Houston's lockdown perimeter D.

With the season series at 2-1 in Houston's favor, this in-state rivalry game has all the makings of a defensive slugfest that could further cement the Rockets' surprising rise in the Western Conference.

Key stats

  • 1
    Houston Rockets sit 5th in Western Conference with 41 wins, while Dallas trails in 10th with 33 wins
  • 2
    Rockets boast better recent form (WWWWL) compared to Mavericks' struggling streak (LWLLL)
  • 3
    Houston holds superior scoring defense, allowing 7184 points vs Dallas' 7681 points against
  • 4
    Rockets maintain a +266 point differential, while Mavericks struggle at +12 on the season

Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks form

Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
Latest matches
W
W
W
W
L
Victories
4/5 (80%)
Draws
0/5 (0%)
Defeats
1/5 (20%)
Mar 13, 2025
Phoenix Suns104:111Houston Rockets
Mar 11, 2025
Orlando Magic84:97Houston Rockets
Mar 9, 2025
New Orleans Hornets117:146Houston Rockets
Mar 7, 2025
New Orleans Hornets97:109Houston Rockets
Mar 5, 2025
Indiana Pacers115:102Houston Rockets
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
Latest matches
L
W
L
L
L
Victories
1/5 (20%)
Draws
0/5 (0%)
Defeats
4/5 (80%)
Mar 13, 2025
San Antonio Spurs126:116Dallas Mavericks
Mar 11, 2025
San Antonio Spurs129:133Dallas Mavericks
Mar 9, 2025
Phoenix Suns125:116Dallas Mavericks
Mar 8, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies122:111Dallas Mavericks
Mar 6, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks137:107Dallas Mavericks

Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks head to head

Houston Rockets

17%

Dallas Mavericks

83%

Feb 8, 2025

Dallas Mavericks

116 : 105

Houston Rockets

Jan 2, 2025

Houston Rockets

110 : 99

Dallas Mavericks

Nov 1, 2024

Dallas Mavericks

102 : 108

Houston Rockets

Apr 7, 2024

Dallas Mavericks

147 : 136

Houston Rockets

Mar 31, 2024

Houston Rockets

107 : 125

Dallas Mavericks

Dec 23, 2023

Houston Rockets

122 : 96

Dallas Mavericks