The red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder (54-12) roll into Milwaukee's Fiserv Forum looking to build on their impressive season against a Bucks squad (37-28) that's searching for consistency in a challenging year.

This clash pits the NBA's fourth-best scoring offense in OKC (119.7 points per game) against Giannis Antetokounmpo and a Bucks team that's been surprisingly vulnerable on the defensive end this season, despite their typically strong home court advantage.

The Milwaukee Bucks will need their superstar Giannis, fresh off a 24-point performance against the Lakers, to counter Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder's league-leading defense that's holding opponents to just 107.2 points per game.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Milwaukee Bucks vs Oklahoma City Thunder matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 68.5% chance of defeating the Bucks.

Oklahoma City Thunder: 68.5% win probability

  • League-leading win record (55-12 record, best in Western Conference)
  • Elite defensive efficiency (7180 points against, 2nd best in West)
  • Strong recent momentum (4-1 in last 5 games, WWLWW)

Milwaukee Bucks: 31.5% win probability

  • Recent inconsistent form (2-3 in last 5 games, WWLLL)
  • Defensive struggles (7427 points against, middle of the pack)
  • Declining win rate (38-28 record, dropped to 4th in East)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder odds

Here are the latest odds for this NBA matchup as the Milwaukee Bucks host the Oklahoma City Thunder at home on Sunday, March 16.

Milwaukee BucksOklahoma City Thunder
Moneyline+150 (via Caesars Sportsbook)-164 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview

The red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder roll into Milwaukee's Fiserv Forum looking to build on their impressive 54-12 record, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander fresh off a stellar 34-point performance against the Celtics.

While the Bucks haven't quite hit their usual dominant stride this season, sitting at 37-28, they're still a force to be reckoned with at home, especially with Giannis Antetokounmpo coming off a solid 24-point, 12-rebound showing against the Lakers.

The Thunder's lockdown defense has been their secret weapon this year - they're holding opponents to a measly 107.2 points per game, second-best in the league, while forcing nearly 18 turnovers per contest.

Milwaukee's offense remains potent, hitting 48.2% from the field (fifth in the NBA), but they'll need to clean up their ball handling against OKC's aggressive defense.

The matchup between Gilgeous-Alexander and the Bucks' perimeter defenders should be fascinating - SGA's been carving up defenses all season with his crafty drives and mid-range game.

Keep an eye on the battle of the boards - both teams average around 44 rebounds per game, and second-chance points could make the difference in what promises to be a tight contest.

This clash of styles - OKC's suffocating defense against Milwaukee's efficient offense - should make for some compelling basketball at the Fiserv Forum.

Key stats

  • 1
    Thunder leads Western Conference at #1 with 55 wins, while Bucks sit 4th in East with 38 wins
  • 2
    OKC shows stronger recent form (WWLWW) compared to Milwaukee's struggling streak (WWLLL)
  • 3
    Thunder maintains best scoring margin in West (+830), Bucks positive but lower at +159
  • 4
    Milwaukee's 38-28 record vs OKC's 55-12 marks clear disparity in season performance

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder form

Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
Latest matches
W
L
L
L
W
Victories
2/5 (40%)
Defeats
3/5 (60%)
Mar 13, 2025
Los Angeles Lakers106:126Milwaukee Bucks
Mar 11, 2025
Indiana Pacers115:114Milwaukee Bucks
Mar 10, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers112:100Milwaukee Bucks
Mar 9, 2025
Orlando Magic111:109Milwaukee Bucks
Mar 6, 2025
Dallas Mavericks107:137Milwaukee Bucks
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
Latest matches
W
L
W
W
W
Victories
4/5 (80%)
Defeats
1/5 (20%)
Mar 12, 2025
Boston Celtics112:118Oklahoma City Thunder
Mar 11, 2025
Denver Nuggets140:127Oklahoma City Thunder
Mar 9, 2025
Denver Nuggets103:127Oklahoma City Thunder
Mar 8, 2025
Portland Trail Blazers89:107Oklahoma City Thunder
Mar 6, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies103:120Oklahoma City Thunder

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder head to head

Milwaukee Bucks

50%

Oklahoma City Thunder

50%

Feb 4, 2025

Oklahoma City Thunder

125 : 96

Milwaukee Bucks

Dec 18, 2024

Milwaukee Bucks

97 : 81

Oklahoma City Thunder

Apr 13, 2024

Oklahoma City Thunder

125 : 107

Milwaukee Bucks

Mar 24, 2024

Milwaukee Bucks

118 : 93

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oct 18, 2023

Oklahoma City Thunder

124 : 101

Milwaukee Bucks

Nov 10, 2022

Oklahoma City Thunder

132 : 136

Milwaukee Bucks