The red-hot Dallas Stars (43-21-3) welcome the Tampa Bay Lightning (39-23-5) to the American Airlines Center in what promises to be an electrifying matchup between two of the NHL's most potent offenses.
Both teams enter Thursday's contest with impressive firepower - the Lightning ranking third in the league with 235 goals while the Stars have notched 227, though Dallas holds a slight edge in defensive stats with their stellar netminder Jake Oettinger posting a .912 save percentage against Tampa's veteran Andrei Vasilevskiy.
The Stars look to leverage their home-ice advantage against a Lightning squad that's coming off a confidence-boosting 2-0 shutout win over the Flyers, setting up what could be a classic battle between these perennial powerhouses.
Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 55.5% chance of defeating the Stars.
Tampa Bay Lightning: 55.5% win probability
- Elite offensive output (236 goals scored, 2nd highest in Eastern Conference)
- Strong goal differential (+57, ranking 4th in conference)
- Momentum advantage (Recent form: WWLLL vs Stars' WLLWL)
Dallas Stars: 44.5% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performance (WLLWL in last 5 games)
- Lower scoring efficiency (229 goals vs Lightning's 236 despite similar games played)
- Defensive vulnerability (177 goals against, higher than Lightning's 179 in fewer games)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning odds
Here are the latest odds for this NHL matchup as the Dallas Stars host the Tampa Bay Lightning at home on Thursday, March 20.
| Dallas Stars | Tampa Bay Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -130 (via Caesars Sportsbook) | +112 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) |
Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning preview
The Stars and Lightning are set for what promises to be an electrifying clash at American Airlines Center, with both teams showing they've got plenty of firepower this season.
Tampa Bay's coming in hot off a solid 2-0 shutout against the Flyers, though their offense wasn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard despite being the NHL's third-highest scoring team.
Dallas has been no slouch either, fresh off a gutsy 4-3 win over the Ducks and showing they can find the back of the net when it counts.
The goalie matchup is where things get really interesting - Andrei Vasilevskiy brings his impressive .917 career save percentage for the Lightning, while Jake Oettinger's been standing tall for Dallas with a quality start rate that'd make any coach smile.
Tampa's power play has been deadly this season, converting at an eye-popping 25.79% clip, but they'll be up against a Stars penalty kill that's been shutting teams down at 84.27%.
Keep an eye on the special teams battle - it could make or break this one, especially with Dallas having the home-ice advantage.
These two teams are pretty evenly matched on paper, but something's gotta give when the NHL's third-best offense meets the Stars' stingy defense.
Should be a chess match between two playoff-caliber teams who know how to win the big ones.
Key stats
- 1Dallas Stars (2nd in West) and Tampa Bay Lightning (5th in East) both sit in playoff positions with 89 and 83 points respectively
- 2Tampa Bay shows stronger offensive output with 236 goals scored vs Dallas's 229, despite playing fewer games (67 vs 69)
- 3Dallas maintains better defensive stats, allowing 177 goals against compared to Tampa Bay's 179
- 4Recent form differs significantly: Dallas at WLLWL while Tampa Bay carries WWLLL, suggesting both teams face consistency challenges
Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning form
Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning head to head
Dallas Stars
50%
Tampa Bay Lightning
50%
Nov 24, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 4
Dallas Stars
Dec 5, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning
4 : 0
Dallas Stars
Dec 2, 2023
Dallas Stars
8 : 1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Feb 11, 2023
Dallas Stars
1 : 3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Nov 16, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning
5 : 4
Dallas Stars
Apr 13, 2022
Dallas Stars
1 : 0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Related
