The surging Houston Rockets bring their eight-game winning streak to Miami's Kaseya Center, where they'll face a Heat squad desperate to snap out of a brutal nine-game skid.

While Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun have powered Houston's climb to second place in the Western Conference with their dynamic offense, Miami's Bam Adebayo has been a lone bright spot during the Heat's recent struggles, coming off a 30-point performance in their heartbreaking loss to Detroit.

The Heat have historically dominated this matchup with nine straight wins over the Rockets, but tonight's clash between the scorching-hot visitors and the ice-cold home team feels like it could mark a turning point in the rivalry.

Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets matchup, our predictive model gives the Rockets a 63.33% chance of defeating the Heat.

Houston Rockets: 63.33% win probability

  • Exceptional recent momentum (Perfect 5-0 in last five games - WWWWW)
  • Strong offensive output (7960 points scored in 70 games, averaging 113.7 per game)
  • Solid position in standings (2nd in Western Conference with 45-25 record)

Miami Heat: 36.67% win probability

  • Poor recent form (0-5 in last five games - LLLLL)
  • Struggling offense (7531 points in 69 games, bottom 5 in league scoring)
  • Negative win-loss record (29-40, sitting 10th in Eastern Conference)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets odds

Here are the latest odds for this NBA matchup as the Miami Heat host the Houston Rockets at home on Friday, March 21.

Miami HeatHouston Rockets
Moneyline+185 (via Caesars Sportsbook)-205 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets preview

The red-hot Houston Rockets roll into South Beach riding an impressive eight-game winning streak, while the struggling Miami Heat look to snap out of their worst slump of the season.

Jalen Green's explosive scoring has been key to Houston's surge, with the young guard dropping 26 points in their recent win over Orlando, while Alperen Sengun continues to stuff the stat sheet with his versatile play in the paint.

Miami's recent skid has been particularly painful at home, where they've failed to close out tight games - including a heartbreaking last-second loss to Detroit where Bam Adebayo's monster 30-point performance wasn't enough to secure the win.

The Heat have historically dominated this matchup with nine straight wins over Houston, but they're barely hanging onto the final play-in spot in the East while the Rockets have surged to second in the Western Conference.

Keep an eye on the paint battle between Sengun and Adebayo, two of the league's most skilled big men who can both score, rebound, and create for others.

The Rockets' league-leading rebounding (48.7 per game) could prove decisive against a Heat team that's struggled on the boards, ranking 23rd in the NBA.

Miami's offense has hit a rough patch, averaging just 102.2 points during their losing streak - a far cry from their season average - while Houston's defense remains one of the stingiest in the league.

With Andrew Wiggins questionable for Miami and Amen Thompson likely returning for Houston, the momentum clearly favors the visitors in what should be a fascinating clash of contrasting styles.

Key stats

  • 1
    Houston Rockets sit 2nd in Western Conference with 45 wins while Miami Heat struggle in 10th place in Eastern Conference with 29 wins
  • 2
    Rockets show dominant form with perfect WWWWW streak in last 5 games versus Heat's concerning LLLLL losing streak
  • 3
    Houston maintains better scoring efficiency with 7960 points for vs 7639 against, while Miami struggles with 7531 points for vs 7648 against
  • 4
    Rockets demonstrate superior win percentage at 64.3% (45-25) compared to Heat's 42% (29-40) through 70 and 69 games respectively

Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets form

Miami Heat
Miami Heat
Latest matches
L
L
L
L
L
Victories
0/5 (0%)
Defeats
5/5 (100%)
Mar 19, 2025
Detroit Pistons116:113Miami Heat
Mar 17, 2025
New York Knicks116:95Miami Heat
Mar 16, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies125:91Miami Heat
Mar 14, 2025
Boston Celtics103:91Miami Heat
Mar 13, 2025
Los Angeles Clippers119:104Miami Heat
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
Latest matches
W
W
W
W
W
Victories
5/5 (100%)
Defeats
0/5 (0%)
Mar 19, 2025
Orlando Magic108:116Houston Rockets
Mar 18, 2025
Philadelphia 76ers137:144Houston Rockets
Mar 16, 2025
Chicago Bulls114:117Houston Rockets
Mar 15, 2025
Dallas Mavericks96:133Houston Rockets
Mar 13, 2025
Phoenix Suns104:111Houston Rockets

Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets head to head

Miami Heat

83%

Houston Rockets

17%

Dec 30, 2024

Houston Rockets

100 : 104

Miami Heat

Apr 6, 2024

Houston Rockets

104 : 119

Miami Heat

Jan 9, 2024

Miami Heat

120 : 113

Houston Rockets

Oct 21, 2023

Houston Rockets

110 : 104

Miami Heat

Feb 11, 2023

Miami Heat

97 : 95

Houston Rockets

Dec 16, 2022

Houston Rockets

108 : 111

Miami Heat