The Dallas Mavericks find themselves in unfamiliar territory as they welcome the Detroit Pistons to American Airlines Center, with the once-mighty Mavs now fighting for their playoff lives after losing superstar Luka Doncic at the trade deadline and suffering season-ending injuries to both Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis.

While Dallas has dropped nine of their last ten games and sits precariously in the final play-in spot, the resurgent Pistons have been one of this season's surprise stories under JB Bickerstaff, riding Cade Cunningham's stellar play (including his recent 25-point triple-double against Miami) to what looks like their first playoff berth since last year's 14-win disaster.

The contrast couldn't be starker as the 39-31 Pistons, winners of six of their last ten and boasting the NBA's ninth-ranked defense, face off against the depleted 33-37 Mavericks who've struggled mightily to find their identity since their midseason roster overhaul.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Dallas Mavericks vs Detroit Pistons matchup, our predictive model gives the Pistons a 55% chance of defeating the Mavs.

Detroit Pistons: 55% win probability

  • Better recent form (WWLLW compared to Mavs' LLLLW)
  • Superior scoring efficiency (8052 points in 70 games vs Mavs' 8045 in 70)
  • Stronger defensive record (7890 points against vs Mavs' 8079)

Dallas Mavericks: 45% win probability

  • Poor recent form (Lost 4 of last 5 games)
  • Defensive struggles (8079 points against, ranking bottom half in West)
  • Negative point differential (-34 on the season)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons odds

Here are the latest odds for this NBA matchup as the Dallas Mavericks host the Detroit Pistons at home on Friday, March 21.

Dallas MavericksDetroit Pistons
Moneyline+300 (via bet365 US)-345 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons preview

What a difference a year makes - the Pistons and Mavericks have completely flipped their fortunes heading into Friday's clash at American Airlines Center.

Detroit's resurgence under JB Bickerstaff has been nothing short of remarkable, with Cade Cunningham leading the charge fresh off a spectacular triple-double against Miami that included a game-winning bank shot three.

The Mavs, meanwhile, are barely recognizable from their Finals appearance last season - the departures of Luka Doncic and injuries to both Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis have left them scrambling just to stay in the play-in conversation.

P.J. Washington Jr. has stepped up admirably for Dallas, dropping 26 in their recent loss to Indiana, but the team's defensive woes continue to be their Achilles' heel.

The Pistons' road warrior mentality (21-15 away from home) could spell trouble for a depleted Mavs squad that's dropped nine of their last ten games.

Detroit's ninth-ranked defense should have a field day against a Dallas team that's struggling to find offensive rhythm without their stars.

Keep an eye on Cunningham, who's been on an absolute tear with his ninth triple-double of the season, as he looks to exploit the Mavs' vulnerable interior defense.

With Dallas giving up 45 points in the fourth quarter to Indiana last game, this matchup feels like it could get away from them quickly if they can't patch up their defensive holes.

Key stats

  • 1
    Dallas sits 10th in West (33-37) while Detroit holds 6th in East (39-31), showing stark conference disparity
  • 2
    Pistons carry better momentum with 'WWLLW' form vs Mavs' struggling 'LLLLW' recent record
  • 3
    Detroit's offense edges Dallas with 8052 points scored vs 8045, despite playing same number of games (70)
  • 4
    Mavericks' defense allows more points (8079 vs 7890), giving Detroit a +189 defensive advantage

Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons form

Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
Latest matches
L
L
L
L
W
Victories
1/5 (20%)
Defeats
4/5 (80%)
Mar 19, 2025
Indiana Pacers135:131Dallas Mavericks
Mar 16, 2025
Philadelphia 76ers130:125Dallas Mavericks
Mar 15, 2025
Houston Rockets133:96Dallas Mavericks
Mar 13, 2025
San Antonio Spurs126:116Dallas Mavericks
Mar 11, 2025
San Antonio Spurs129:133Dallas Mavericks
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons
Latest matches
W
W
L
L
W
Victories
3/5 (60%)
Defeats
2/5 (40%)
Mar 19, 2025
Miami Heat113:116Detroit Pistons
Mar 18, 2025
New Orleans Hornets81:127Detroit Pistons
Mar 15, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder113:107Detroit Pistons
Mar 13, 2025
Washington Wizards129:125Detroit Pistons
Mar 11, 2025
Washington Wizards103:123Detroit Pistons

Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons head to head

Dallas Mavericks

67%

Detroit Pistons

33%

Feb 1, 2025

Detroit Pistons

117 : 102

Dallas Mavericks

Apr 13, 2024

Dallas Mavericks

89 : 107

Detroit Pistons

Mar 10, 2024

Detroit Pistons

124 : 142

Dallas Mavericks

Oct 21, 2023

Dallas Mavericks

114 : 104

Detroit Pistons

Jan 31, 2023

Dallas Mavericks

111 : 105

Detroit Pistons

Dec 2, 2022

Detroit Pistons

131 : 125

Dallas Mavericks