Saturday's NBA slate features five compelling matchups, headlined by a Warriors-Hawks showdown where our advanced analytics model has identified several high-value betting opportunities.
Our top NBA picks for March 22 include a Warriors moneyline play showing a significant 3.1% edge, along with an intriguing Wizards +15.5 spread against the Knicks that carries our highest edge of the day at 3.5%.
From early afternoon action starting with Nets-Pacers to a late-night Lakers-Bulls clash, we've analyzed thousands of simulations to bring you the most promising NBA best bets with demonstrated positive expected value.
NBA best bets
| Game | Time | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:00 PM | Warriors Moneyline (-135)|Under 230.5 Points (-110) |
  | 8:00 PM | Wizards +15.5 (-112) |
Hawks vs. Warriors
Saturday, Mar 22
7:00 PM
State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
The Warriors head into Atlanta with momentum on their side, showing impressive form on both ends of the court. Their veteran leadership, particularly from Steph Curry, has been crucial in recent road performances.
Atlanta's defensive struggles this season make them vulnerable against Golden State's high-powered offense. The Warriors' ability to space the floor and create mismatches should prove decisive in this matchup.
While the Hawks have shown flashes of brilliance at home, they've been inconsistent in protecting their home court. The Warriors' experience in tight games gives them a significant edge.
Golden State's bench depth has been a game-changer lately, providing quality minutes and maintaining intensity when the starters rest. This could be the difference-maker in what promises to be a close contest.
The Warriors' improved road record and their historical success against Atlanta make this moneyline bet particularly appealing. Their disciplined approach and superior shooting should secure the win.
Recent trends suggest both teams have been focusing more on defensive efficiency, particularly in high-stakes matchups. The Warriors have shown improved commitment to their defensive schemes.
The Hawks' offense has been less explosive than usual when facing disciplined defensive teams. Golden State's ability to control tempo could force Atlanta into a more methodical game.
Both teams' key players have been logging heavy minutes, which typically leads to more conservative offensive approaches, especially in the fourth quarter. This fatigue factor often results in lower-scoring games.
The Warriors' defensive adjustments on the road have been noteworthy, while Atlanta's recent scoring patterns suggest they might struggle to maintain their usual pace.
Historical matchups between these teams have frequently gone under similar totals, particularly when Golden State is the visiting team. The tactical approach of both coaches suggests a more controlled game pace.
Knicks vs. Wizards
Saturday, Mar 22
8:00 PM
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Despite their overall struggles, the Wizards have shown resilience against the spread, particularly as heavy underdogs. Their young roster plays with nothing to lose, which often leads to competitive performances.
The Knicks, while dominant at home, have occasionally struggled to cover large spreads. Their methodical style of play doesn't typically lend itself to blowout victories, even against weaker opponents.
Washington's recent offensive improvements, though not resulting in many wins, have kept them within striking distance in several games against superior opponents. Their pace of play can create problems for the more structured Knicks.
The point spread of 15.5 provides significant cushion for a Wizards team that's proven capable of staying within striking distance, even in losses. Their perimeter shooting could keep them competitive enough to cover.
Historical data suggests that such large spreads in NBA regular season games tend to favor the underdog. The Wizards' ability to push the pace and score in bunches makes this spread particularly attractive.
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