HomeNewsGolden Knights vs Lightning Prediction & Odds - 3/23/2025

Golden Knights vs Lightning Prediction & Odds - 3/23/2025

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Vegas Golden Knights vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Knights a 70% chance of defeating the Bolts.

Vegas Golden Knights: 70% win probability

Strong offensive output (233 goals scored this season, ranking 5th in Western Conference)
Solid defensive structure (188 goals against, 3rd best in Western Conference)
Higher conference position (3rd place with 90 points in 69 games)

Tampa Bay Lightning: 30% win probability

Recent inconsistent form (LWWWL in last five games)
Road game disadvantage (Playing away from home where they've struggled)
Lower points percentage (85 points in 69 games vs Knights' 90 points)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Tampa Bay Lightning odds

Here are the latest odds for this NHL matchup as the Vegas Golden Knights host the Tampa Bay Lightning at home on Sunday, March 23.

	Vegas Golden Knights	Tampa Bay Lightning
Moneyline	-111 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)	+100 (via bet365 US)

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Vegas Golden Knights vs. Tampa Bay Lightning preview

Sunday's clash at T-Mobile Arena pits two of the NHL's defensive powerhouses against each other, with both teams riding hot streaks into this marquee matchup.

The Lightning's offense has been electric, with the trio of Kucherov, Hagel, and Point lighting up the scoreboard to the tune of 93 goals this season, while Andrei Vasilevskiy's been a brick wall in net with a stellar .920 save percentage.

Vegas isn't exactly slouching either - their dynamic duo of Jack Eichel and Mark Stone has been terrorizing opponents, while their blue line's been rock-solid, giving up just 10 goals in their last five games.

What's really caught my eye is how both teams have transformed their defensive games lately - Tampa's only allowed 10 goals in their last four, while Vegas's defensive corps, led by McNabb and Pietrangelo, has been suffocating opposing forwards.

The X-factor could be Vegas's recent home-ice dominance, where they've made T-Mobile Arena one of the toughest buildings for visitors.

Keep an eye on Victor Hedman, who's not just shutting down opponents but has quietly racked up 12 goals and 41 assists from the blue line - pretty impressive for a defenseman.

This one's shaping up to be a chess match between two of the league's smartest coaches, with both teams playing some of their best hockey at just the right time.

With both squads eyeing playoff positioning, expect a playoff-like atmosphere and intensity from the opening faceoff.

Key stats

1
Vegas Golden Knights sit 3rd in Western Conference with 90 points while Tampa Bay Lightning hold 5th spot in Eastern with 85 points
2
Tampa Bay shows stronger offensive output with 243 goals scored vs Vegas's 233, despite playing one fewer game
3
Vegas's recent form WWLLW vs Tampa Bay's LWWWL indicates both teams have mixed momentum heading into matchup
4
Goal difference comparison: Vegas +45 (233 GF, 188 GA) vs Tampa Bay +56 (243 GF, 187 GA) suggests Tampa's stronger overall efficiency