The Toyota Center is set for a pivotal Western Conference clash as the surging Houston Rockets, riding a nine-game winning streak, welcome a Denver Nuggets squad that's desperately trying to avoid their third straight loss.

With Nikola Jokic's status still uncertain and the Rockets boasting the NBA's third-best defensive rating, this rematch of January's 20-point Houston victory could expose Denver's recent defensive woes that have seen them allow 120+ points in four of their last five games.

The second-place Rockets (46-25) look to extend their dominance over the fourth-place Nuggets (44-27) in what promises to be a physical battle between the league's best offensive rebounding team and the defending champions.

Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets matchup, our predictive model gives the Rockets a 52.5% chance of defeating the Nuggets.

Houston Rockets: 52.5% win probability

  • Outstanding recent momentum (Perfect WWWWW in last 5 games)
  • Superior defensive efficiency (7737 goals against vs Nuggets' 8301)
  • Higher win percentage (46-25 record vs Nuggets' 44-27)

Denver Nuggets: 47.5% win probability

  • Inconsistent recent form (LLWLW in last 5 games)
  • Defensive struggles (8301 goals against, ranking bottom half in conference)
  • Road game disadvantage (Playing away vs Rockets' 2nd place home court)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets odds

Here are the latest odds for this NBA matchup as the Houston Rockets host the Denver Nuggets at home on Sunday, March 23.

Houston RocketsDenver Nuggets
Moneyline-290 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)+240 (via bet365 US)

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Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets preview

The red-hot Houston Rockets are looking to extend their impressive nine-game winning streak as they host the Denver Nuggets in what's shaping up to be a crucial Western Conference showdown at the Toyota Center.

Houston's defense has been nothing short of spectacular this season - they're holding teams to the fourth-lowest field goal percentage in the league, while their offensive rebounding has been off the charts.

The defending champion Nuggets have hit a rough patch lately, dropping their last two games and potentially missing their cornerstone player Nikola Jokic, who's been sidelined for several games.

These teams' last meeting in January saw the Rockets dominate with a 20-point road victory, but Denver's Aaron Gordon has been stepping up big time - he dropped 26 points on 64% shooting in their recent outing.

Jalen Green's been on fire for the Rockets, coming off a 26-point performance against Orlando, and he'll be looking to keep that momentum going against Denver's struggling perimeter defense.

The Nuggets' offense, usually a well-oiled machine ranking fourth in efficiency, will need to find answers against Houston's suffocating defense that's been giving opponents fits all season.

With both teams fighting for playoff positioning - Houston sitting pretty in second while Denver's slipped to fourth - this matchup has all the makings of a playoff-intensity battle.

Keep an eye on the battle of the boards, where Houston's league-leading offensive rebounding could be the x-factor against Denver's middle-of-the-pack defensive rebounding.

Key stats

  • 1
    Houston Rockets (2nd) have a stronger current position than Denver Nuggets (4th) in Western Conference standings
  • 2
    Rockets show superior recent form with 5 straight wins (WWWWW) while Nuggets struggle with mixed results (LLWLW)
  • 3
    Denver Nuggets maintain better offensive output with 8,575 points scored vs Rockets' 8,062 points
  • 4
    Houston's defense proves more effective, allowing 7,737 points against compared to Denver's 8,301 points against

Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets form

Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
Latest matches
W
W
W
W
W
Victories
5/5 (100%)
Defeats
0/5 (0%)
Mar 22, 2025
Miami Heat98:102Houston Rockets
Mar 19, 2025
Orlando Magic108:116Houston Rockets
Mar 18, 2025
Philadelphia 76ers137:144Houston Rockets
Mar 16, 2025
Chicago Bulls114:117Houston Rockets
Mar 15, 2025
Dallas Mavericks96:133Houston Rockets
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets
Latest matches
L
L
W
L
W
Victories
2/5 (40%)
Defeats
3/5 (60%)
Mar 22, 2025
Portland Trail Blazers128:109Denver Nuggets
Mar 20, 2025
Los Angeles Lakers120:108Denver Nuggets
Mar 18, 2025
Golden State Warriors105:114Denver Nuggets
Mar 16, 2025
Washington Wizards126:123Denver Nuggets
Mar 15, 2025
Los Angeles Lakers126:131Denver Nuggets

Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets head to head

Houston Rockets

60%

Denver Nuggets

40%

Mar 23, 2025

Houston Rockets

0 : 0

Denver Nuggets

Jan 16, 2025

Denver Nuggets

108 : 128

Houston Rockets

Dec 9, 2023

Denver Nuggets

106 : 114

Houston Rockets

Nov 30, 2023

Denver Nuggets

134 : 124

Houston Rockets

Nov 25, 2023

Houston Rockets

105 : 86

Denver Nuggets

Nov 13, 2023

Houston Rockets

107 : 104

Denver Nuggets