The Miami Heat welcome their former star Jimmy Butler back to South Beach as they face the red-hot Golden State Warriors in what promises to be an emotionally charged matchup at the Kaseya Center.

While the Warriors have been surging with a 16-4 record since acquiring Butler in a blockbuster trade with Miami, the Heat have struggled mightily, going 5-17 and barely clinging to the final play-in tournament spot despite finally snapping their 10-game losing streak against Charlotte.

All eyes will be on the Heat's Andrew Wiggins, coming off a scorching 42-point performance, as the home team looks to upset the Warriors, who might be without Stephen Curry due to a pelvis injury.

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors matchup, our predictive model gives the Warriors a 73.33% chance of defeating the Heat.

Golden State Warriors: 73.33% win probability

  • Higher league position (6th vs 10th in respective conferences)
  • Better win-loss record (41-30 compared to Heat's 30-41)
  • Superior scoring defense (7877 points against vs Heat's 7855 in fewer games)

Miami Heat: 26.67% win probability

  • Poor recent form (WLLLL in last 5 games)
  • Lower scoring offense (7751 points scored, ranking bottom 5 in league)
  • Negative point differential (-104 on the season)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors odds

Here are the latest odds for this NBA matchup as the Miami Heat host the Golden State Warriors at home on Tuesday, March 25.

Miami HeatGolden State Warriors
Moneyline+170 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)-190 (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

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Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors preview

The Warriors roll into South Beach looking to shake off Saturday's stumble against Atlanta, while the Heat finally snapped their brutal 10-game skid with a much-needed win over Charlotte.

This matchup has an extra spark thanks to the midseason trade that sent Jimmy Butler III to Golden State and Andrew Wiggins to Miami - with Butler dropping 25 points in his last outing while Wiggins exploded for 42 in his recent Heat performance.

Golden State's offense has been clicking lately, putting up nearly 115 points per game over their last 10, though Stephen Curry's questionable status with a pelvis injury could throw a wrench in their plans.

The Heat's home court hasn't provided much advantage this season - they're struggling with a 16-19 record at the Kaseya Center, while the Warriors have been one of the league's hottest teams since the Butler trade, going 16-4.

Miami's offense has hit a serious rough patch, averaging just 103 points in their last 10 games, but Tyler Herro's consistent production (23.5 points per game) gives them a fighting chance.

Keep an eye on Warriors' rookie Brandon Podziemski, who's been a revelation with his all-around play, putting up 10.5 points and nearly 5 rebounds per game while providing crucial depth for Golden State's rotation.

The Heat might get a boost if Duncan Robinson can return from his back issues, though he remains a game-time decision for this cross-conference clash.

These teams' first meeting this season saw Miami grab a surprising road win, but both squads have undergone dramatic transformations since that January matchup.

Key stats

  • 1
    Warriors sit 6th in West (41-30) while Heat struggle at 10th in East (30-41)
  • 2
    Golden State's recent form shows promise at LWWLW vs Miami's concerning WLLLL streak
  • 3
    Warriors maintain positive scoring margin (+172) while Heat are negative (-104)
  • 4
    Heat's home record needs improvement with 30 wins vs Warriors' 41 season victories

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors form

Miami Heat
Miami Heat
Latest matches
W
L
L
L
L
Victories
1/5 (20%)
Defeats
4/5 (80%)
Mar 23, 2025
Charlotte Bobcats105:122Miami Heat
Mar 22, 2025
Houston Rockets102:98Miami Heat
Mar 19, 2025
Detroit Pistons116:113Miami Heat
Mar 17, 2025
New York Knicks116:95Miami Heat
Mar 16, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies125:91Miami Heat
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors
Latest matches
L
W
W
L
W
Victories
3/5 (60%)
Defeats
2/5 (40%)
Mar 22, 2025
Atlanta Hawks124:115Golden State Warriors
Mar 21, 2025
Toronto Raptors114:117Golden State Warriors
Mar 19, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks93:104Golden State Warriors
Mar 18, 2025
Denver Nuggets114:105Golden State Warriors
Mar 16, 2025
New York Knicks94:97Golden State Warriors

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors head to head

Miami Heat

60%

Golden State Warriors

40%

Mar 25, 2025

Miami Heat

0 : 0

Golden State Warriors

Jan 8, 2025

Golden State Warriors

98 : 114

Miami Heat

Jul 21, 2024

Miami Heat

102 : 99

Golden State Warriors

Jul 6, 2024

Golden State Warriors

105 : 66

Miami Heat

Mar 26, 2024

Miami Heat

92 : 113

Golden State Warriors

Dec 29, 2023

Golden State Warriors

102 : 114

Miami Heat