The Miami Heat welcome their former star Jimmy Butler back to South Beach as they face the red-hot Golden State Warriors in what promises to be an emotionally charged matchup at the Kaseya Center.
While the Warriors have been surging with a 16-4 record since acquiring Butler in a blockbuster trade with Miami, the Heat have struggled mightily, going 5-17 and barely clinging to the final play-in tournament spot despite finally snapping their 10-game losing streak against Charlotte.
All eyes will be on the Heat's Andrew Wiggins, coming off a scorching 42-point performance, as the home team looks to upset the Warriors, who might be without Stephen Curry due to a pelvis injury.
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors matchup, our predictive model gives the Warriors a 73.33% chance of defeating the Heat.
Golden State Warriors: 73.33% win probability
- Higher league position (6th vs 10th in respective conferences)
- Better win-loss record (41-30 compared to Heat's 30-41)
- Superior scoring defense (7877 points against vs Heat's 7855 in fewer games)
Miami Heat: 26.67% win probability
- Poor recent form (WLLLL in last 5 games)
- Lower scoring offense (7751 points scored, ranking bottom 5 in league)
- Negative point differential (-104 on the season)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors odds
Here are the latest odds for this NBA matchup as the Miami Heat host the Golden State Warriors at home on Tuesday, March 25.
Miami Heat | Golden State Warriors | |
---|---|---|
Moneyline | +170 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) | -190 (via BetMGM Sportsbook) |
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Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors preview
The Warriors roll into South Beach looking to shake off Saturday's stumble against Atlanta, while the Heat finally snapped their brutal 10-game skid with a much-needed win over Charlotte.
This matchup has an extra spark thanks to the midseason trade that sent Jimmy Butler III to Golden State and Andrew Wiggins to Miami - with Butler dropping 25 points in his last outing while Wiggins exploded for 42 in his recent Heat performance.
Golden State's offense has been clicking lately, putting up nearly 115 points per game over their last 10, though Stephen Curry's questionable status with a pelvis injury could throw a wrench in their plans.
The Heat's home court hasn't provided much advantage this season - they're struggling with a 16-19 record at the Kaseya Center, while the Warriors have been one of the league's hottest teams since the Butler trade, going 16-4.
Miami's offense has hit a serious rough patch, averaging just 103 points in their last 10 games, but Tyler Herro's consistent production (23.5 points per game) gives them a fighting chance.
Keep an eye on Warriors' rookie Brandon Podziemski, who's been a revelation with his all-around play, putting up 10.5 points and nearly 5 rebounds per game while providing crucial depth for Golden State's rotation.
The Heat might get a boost if Duncan Robinson can return from his back issues, though he remains a game-time decision for this cross-conference clash.
These teams' first meeting this season saw Miami grab a surprising road win, but both squads have undergone dramatic transformations since that January matchup.
Key stats
- 1Warriors sit 6th in West (41-30) while Heat struggle at 10th in East (30-41)
- 2Golden State's recent form shows promise at LWWLW vs Miami's concerning WLLLL streak
- 3Warriors maintain positive scoring margin (+172) while Heat are negative (-104)
- 4Heat's home record needs improvement with 30 wins vs Warriors' 41 season victories
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors form


Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors head to head
Miami Heat
60%
Golden State Warriors
40%
Mar 25, 2025
Miami Heat
0 : 0
Golden State Warriors
Jan 8, 2025
Golden State Warriors
98 : 114
Miami Heat
Jul 21, 2024
Miami Heat
102 : 99
Golden State Warriors
Jul 6, 2024
Golden State Warriors
105 : 66
Miami Heat
Mar 26, 2024
Miami Heat
92 : 113
Golden State Warriors
Dec 29, 2023
Golden State Warriors
102 : 114
Miami Heat
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