The Tampa Bay Lightning's high-powered offense, which has netted 243 goals this season, faces off against a Pittsburgh Penguins squad that's shown flashes of brilliance but struggled with consistency, particularly in their defensive game where they've allowed 255 goals.
Both teams bring elite goaltending talent to the matchup, with Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy (.917 career save percentage) squaring off against Pittsburgh's Tristan Jarry, though neither netminder has been at their peak form lately.
The Lightning's impressive 25.76% power play efficiency could be the difference-maker when the home team hosts the away team at Amalie Arena on Tuesday night.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Pittsburgh Penguins prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 51% chance of defeating the Pens.
Tampa Bay Lightning: 51% win probability
- Elite offensive production (245 goals scored, 2nd highest in Eastern Conference)
- Strong goal differential (+54, 5th best in conference)
- Momentum building with recent form (3 wins in last 5 games)
Pittsburgh Penguins: 49% win probability
- Poor defensive record (261 goals against, 2nd worst in conference)
- Inconsistent performance (29 wins in 72 games played)
- Struggling road record (14th place in Eastern Conference with 69 points)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Pittsburgh Penguins odds
Here are the latest odds for this NHL matchup as the Tampa Bay Lightning host the Pittsburgh Penguins at home on Tuesday, March 25.
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Pittsburgh Penguins | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -265 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | +220 (via BetMGM Sportsbook) |
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Pittsburgh Penguins preview
The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Pittsburgh Penguins at Amalie Arena in what's shaping up to be a classic clash between two teams on different trajectories this season.
Tampa's been lighting up the scoreboard with their lethal power play unit, converting at an impressive 25.76% rate, while the Pens have shown some spark of their own, netting 48 power play goals this campaign.
Keep your eyes on Andrei Vasilevskiy between the pipes for Tampa - he's been a wall this season with a .917 career save percentage, though Pens' netminder Tristan Jarry's got something to prove after a rocky stretch.
The Lightning's offense has been clicking lately, putting up 243 goals this season, but don't sleep on Pittsburgh's ability to capitalize on their chances with a solid 10.4% shooting percentage.
Tampa's home-ice advantage at Amalie could be the difference-maker here, especially considering they've managed to keep their defensive game tight, allowing just 32 power play goals against all season.
After Pittsburgh's recent 3-3 deadlock with the Panthers, they're hungry to prove they can hang with the conference's top teams, and this matchup presents the perfect opportunity.
The contrast in styles should make for some fascinating hockey - Tampa's high-octane offense against Pittsburgh's opportunistic approach could create some real fireworks on the ice.
Key stats
- 1Tampa Bay sits 5th in Eastern Conference with 85 points while Pittsburgh struggles in 14th with 69 points - a 16-point gap between the teams
- 2Lightning show strong offensive output with 245 goals scored (3rd highest in East) versus Penguins' 213 goals
- 3Tampa Bay's recent form LLWWW indicates momentum shift upward, while Pittsburgh's LWLWW suggests inconsistency
- 4Goal differential tells the story: Lightning at +54 (245 GF, 191 GA) compared to Penguins' -48 (213 GF, 261 GA)
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Pittsburgh Penguins form
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Pittsburgh Penguins head to head
Tampa Bay Lightning
50%
Pittsburgh Penguins
50%
Jan 12, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins
2 : 5
Tampa Bay Lightning
Nov 20, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins
2 : 3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Apr 6, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins
5 : 4
Tampa Bay Lightning
Dec 7, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning
3 : 1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Dec 1, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 4
Pittsburgh Penguins
Mar 3, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning
4 : 5
Pittsburgh Penguins
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