NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 03/28/2025

The New York Knicks head to Milwaukee to face the Bucks in what promises to be a closely contested matchup. Despite the absence of key player Jalen Brunson, the Knicks have shown resilience and depth in recent games.

Milwaukee, on the other hand, is dealing with their own challenges. The loss of Damian Lillard to blood clots is a significant blow to their offensive firepower. Additionally, Giannis Antetokounmpo's status remains questionable due to a foot issue, further complicating the Bucks' game plan.

Historically, the Knicks have had the Bucks' number this season, winning both previous encounters by substantial margins. New York's defensive strategy has been particularly effective against Milwaukee, limiting them to under 30% shooting from beyond the arc in those matchups.

The Knicks' balanced offensive attack, led by the likes of OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Karl-Anthony Towns, should be able to compensate for Brunson's absence. Their ability to dominate the boards, as demonstrated in previous meetings, could prove crucial in controlling the pace of the game.

While the Bucks will be eager to defend their home court, the combination of injuries, recent form, and head-to-head history tilts the scales slightly in favor of the Knicks. The narrow spread suggests oddsmakers recognize the potential for an upset.

Given these factors, taking the Knicks at +1 presents an attractive opportunity. Their recent success against Milwaukee, coupled with the Bucks' injury concerns, makes New York a solid bet to at least keep the game close, if not pull off the outright win.

The Phoenix Suns travel to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves in what could be a pivotal game for both teams' playoff aspirations. Despite their current position outside the play-in tournament, the Suns have shown signs of life, winning five of their last seven games.

Kevin Durant and Devin Booker continue to be the offensive engines for Phoenix, consistently putting up impressive numbers. Their ability to create shots and score in bunches keeps the Suns competitive even against tougher opponents.

The Timberwolves, while holding a better record, have shown inconsistency lately, losing three of their last four games. This vulnerability at home against a hungry Suns team could prove costly.

Historically, the Suns have struggled as road underdogs against Western Conference opponents. However, their recent form and the urgency of their playoff push could serve as powerful motivators to buck this trend.

Minnesota's defensive prowess, particularly in limiting opponents' scoring in the second and fourth quarters, will be put to the test against Phoenix's high-powered offense. The Suns' league-leading three-point and free-throw percentages could be key factors in keeping the game close.

While the Timberwolves are favored at home, the 7-point spread seems generous given the Suns' recent performances and the potential for a closely contested game. Phoenix's firepower and desperation for wins make them an attractive bet to at least cover the spread, if not pull off the upset.

The Golden State Warriors visit the New Orleans Pelicans in what, at first glance, appears to be a mismatch. However, a closer look reveals potential value in backing the underdog Pelicans with such a generous spread.

The Warriors have been inconsistent, especially on the road, where six of their last seven losses have occurred. Their struggles to create offense without Stephen Curry, who is questionable for this game with a pelvis injury, are well-documented.

New Orleans, despite their poor record, has shown flashes of competitiveness, recently upsetting the 76ers. The Pelicans' young core, led by Zion Williamson, has the potential to cause problems for the Warriors' defense.

Historically, the Warriors have struggled to cover large spreads, going 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as double-digit favorites. This trend suggests they might have difficulty covering such a large spread against the Pelicans.

While the Pelicans are dealing with injuries to key players, their home court advantage and the Warriors' road woes could contribute to a closer game than the spread suggests. New Orleans' ability to score in transition could exploit Golden State's sometimes lax transition defense.

Given these factors, taking the Pelicans at +13.5 presents an intriguing opportunity. While an outright win might be a stretch, New Orleans has the potential to keep the game competitive and cover this large spread, especially if Curry is limited or absent for the Warriors.